There have been several disappointments since the initial product unveil. First, people scratched their heads over why there would be such a delay until the new phones shipped. Then, people wondered why the first phones to ship were going to be the all-touch phones. The all-keyboard phone -- the Q10 -- was not going to start shipping until May. The initial buzz about sales of the new Z10 phones came and went. There hasn't seemed to be a universal sense that BlackBerry is going to be a runaway success. And this has just fed into the skeptics of the stock. When a third of a stock's float is held short, it's hard to imagine one with more skeptics. My view is that most BlackBerry critics are of the opinion that this is a stock that had its fun going from $6 to $18 but that was just a mirage before reality sets in and this stock goes back to becoming a Palm and running out of cash. They are just waiting for the fall from grace.
However, it would be foolish to underestimate how many executives -- just in North America alone -- are still out there with their 5-year-old clunky BlackBerrys just waiting to upgrade to the Q10. A lot of these people are being supplied with BlackBerrys by their CIOs. Therefore, don't expect to see them in line-ups at Best Buy ( BBY)in Canada this weekend. The point is that Q10 will inspire the biggest number of upgrades from the existing subscriber base over the next couple of months (especially as the Q10 comes to the U.S. at the end of this month). Because there's not as much attention on BlackBerry the stock today as there was back in January at the keynote launch, I would expect BlackBerry's stock to do well over the next couple of weeks as we hear more and more about how the Q10 launch is going. You should also watch out for the possibility of some kind of strategic investment in BlackBerry by some big brother type or some kind of "strategic licensing" deal. My suspicion is that CEO Thorsten Heins wanted to get the launches of both the Z10 and Q10 out of the way before doing those kinds of deals, in order to give himself the most leverage in those discussions. In any case, don't forget about BlackBerry. We could be about to hear a slew of good news, strategic deals and some positive earnings in the June report. If true, that will give the shorts a bad case of heartburn. At the time of publication, the author was long BBRY. Follow @ericjackson This article was written by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.