Shutterfly

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One potential earnings short-squeeze candidate is Internet-based social expression and personal publishing service provider Shutterfly ( SFLY), which is set to release numbers on Wednesday after the market close. Wall Street analysts, on average, expect Shutterfly to report revenue of $109.74 million on a loss of 40 cents per share.

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The current short interest as a percentage of the float for Shutterfly is pretty high at 15.9%. That means that out of the 28.41 million shares in the tradable float, 5.83 million shares are sold short by the bears. This is high short interest on a stock with a relatively low float. Any bullish earnings news could easily send shares of SFLY soaring post-earnings.

From a technical perspective, SFLY is currently trending above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bullish. This stock has been trending sideways and consolidating for the last two months, with shares moving between $41.72 on the downside and $46.12 on the upside. A high-volume move above the upper-end of its recent range could trigger a major breakout trade for shares of SFLY post-earnings.

If you're bullish on SFLY, then I would wait until after its report and look for long-biased trades if this stock manages to break out above its 52-week high at $46.12 a share with high volume. Look for volume on that move that hits near or above its three-month average action of 869,553 shares. If we get that breakout, then SFLY will set up to enter new 52-week high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $55 to $60 a share.

I would avoid SFLY or look for short-biased trades if after earnings it fails to trigger that breakout, and then drops back below its 50-day at $43.63 a share and then below some more key near-term support levels at $42.95 to $41.72 a share with high volume. If we get that move, then SFLY will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major support levels at $40.69 to $38 a share. Any high-volume move below $38 will then give SFLY a chance to re-fill some of its previous gap zone from February that started at $32 a share.

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