It's hard to argue that the Peak oil theory hasn't been turned on its head. The theory is still intact. But as long as improvements in oil recovery outpace demand, the amount of time before the end of fossil fuel is extended. More important for solar investors, the price of conventional energy continues to remain affordable, thus placing a cloud over solar's profitability. Dim profitability for solar profits will exert downward price pressure on solar stocks. Case in point is every stock other than First Solar in the last week. Even First Solar hasn't experienced much in terms of real buying. First Solar's short interest was over 30% before the jump. Other than shorts covering due to the squeeze, there hasn't been enough buying pressure to match the closing price, much less take out the high of $41.
If you want to know if the move higher in First Solar has legs, keep a close eye on USO and UNG. If oil and natural gas continue their trend lower, you can forget about the solar space entering into a bullish trend higher. It's a little late to take gains in the solar names other than First Solar. You may not want to short First Solar because it's so heavily shorted already, but now may be a good time to grab some or all the profits off the table. At the time of publication the author had no position in any of the stocks mentioned.Follow @RobertWeinsteinThis article was written by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.