The consensus among analysts is for Hudson City to report first-quarter EPS of 12 cents a share, increasing from 10 cents in the fourth quarter, but declining from 15 cents in the first quarter of 2012. Hudson City on April 18 will hold its special meeting and shareholder vote on the M&T acquisition. Jefferies analyst Ken Usdin in a note to clients on Friday said that the announcement implied M&T would be handed down a "formal/informal decree" over its Bank Secrecy Act compliance deficiencies, and that the merger delay was "clearly a negative for both MTB shares and the merger
arbitrage spread on both the delay of EPS accretion and greater uncertainty on closing." "The trouble with regulatory decrees is that the timeframe for their eventual removal is difficult to handicap," Usdin wrote. According to Usdin, "the worst-case scenario of one of the parties walking away is tough to assign a probability to, but it would seem that both parties would desire the deal to still close (MTB for earnings help and credibility, HCBK for fundamental business model reasons)."