NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- While most market strategists and fundamental analysts are raising their year-end price targets for the S&P 500, I am not. I say we have reached my first-half target, my semiannual risky level at 1566.9. I predict the S&P 500 will decline to my annual value level at 1348.3 at some point by year's end.While Wall Street tells investors that "no one can time the market," I say you can time the market! I have found that it is easier to be a market timer at a bottom than at a market top, however. This is why my current suggested investment strategy has been to raise cash to at least 50% on strength to risky levels. In reality, fundamental analysts are trying to time the market when they raise year-end price targets, and they are calling for additional upward momentum when they call for P/E multiple-expansion. Here's a summary of my major market-timing calls since the end of 1999: At the end of 1999, with the Nasdaq at 4069, I made a market-timing call saying that I did not know how high the Nasdaq can go in 2000, but the Nasdaq will decline into the 3500 to 3000 range sometime during the year.
In March 2000, with the Nasdaq above 5000, I told investors to reduce holdings in tech stocks by at least 50%. The high was 5132 and I re-iterated my call for Nasdaq 3500 to 3000 by the end of that year. The low in May 2000 was 3043, then after a rebound to 4289 into July, the Nasdaq traded as low as 2252 in December 2000. My next major market-timing call was to be bullish for the Nasdaq beginning in July in 2002 with the Nasdaq below 1200. I reiterated this bullish call in October 2002 with a Nasdaq low of 1109 that month.
My conclusion has been that as long as Dow Industrials stay above my semiannual pivot at 14323 the upside on the S&P 500 was to my semiannual risky level at 1566.9 and the October 2007 intraday high at 1576.09 with my semiannual risky level at 965.51 on the Russell 2000. This scenario continues as the second quarter begins, but keep in mind that there's an 85% chance that the Dow Transports will decline to my semiannual and annual pivots are 5955 and 5925 on Dow Transports. My annual value levels remain at 12696 Dow Industrials, 1348.3 S&P 500, 2806 Nasdaq, 5469 Dow Transports and 809.54 on the Russell 2000. Here are the three ETF's to trade from the short side on strength to risky levels: Diamonds Trust ( DIA) ($145.32) traded to an all time high at $145.53 at quarter's end versus my semiannual pivot at $143.01. This week's risky level at $145.35 was tested on Thursday. We begin the second quarter with quarterly, monthly and weekly pivots at $137.01, 142.65 and $145.56. My annual value level is $126.69. The weekly chart profile is extremely overbought with its five-week modified moving average (MMA) at $142.04.