The HMI peaked at 72 in June 2005, which is when I predicted a peak of the share prices for the homebuilders. The index has been below 50 since May 2006, and home prices peaked in June/July of 2006. The low for the index was eight in January 2009. My benchmark for the homebuilder industry is the PHLX Housing Sector Index ( HGX) (191.18). It has been moving sideways since Jan. 24 with highs between 192.39 and 194.06. HGX is up 11.6% year-to-date setting its 2013 high on Feb. 13. My semiannual value level lags at 152.56 with a weekly pivot at 189.82 and monthly risky level at 194.28 lining up the Feb. 13 high.
Chart Courtesy of Thomson/Reuters