Looking forward to the next three years, our outlook assumes a cyclical recovery continues in mature markets and rapid growth continues in growth markets. Assuming annual Worldwide REVPAR growth of 5% to 7% through 2015, 4% to 5% net rooms growth and stable net cash flow from our vacation ownership business, Starwood would generate:
- Annual EBITDA growth of 10% to 12%
- Annual EPS growth of 16% to 20%
- Operating Cash Flow of approximately $2 billion over this time period (inclusive of cash proceeds from Bal Harbour units, exclusive of any sales of owned assets)
- Based on these assumptions and our ability to increase borrowing while maintaining our current investment grade rating, our capacity to invest in growth and return capital to shareholders would be approximately $3.0 billion to $3.3 billion not including cash generated from hotel sales over the three-year timeframe.
- Executing our Asset-Light strategy and achieving our goal of generating 80% of our earnings before SG&A from Management and Franchise fees by 2016 could generate an additional approximately $3 billion of cash proceeds from owned hotel sales.