Google's Coming Fall

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- Recently, at Seeking Alpha, I tried a thought experiment.

I dumpedon Google ( GOOG).

The reaction? There wasn't one. The piece was mostly ignored, although there were a few drive-by comments to the effect that I had lost my mind. A few days later a real estate investor predicted on the same site that Google would soon blow right by $1,000/share.

Genius!

Google is a great company, but nothing goes straight up. When a stock gets too fashionable, when everyone is bullish about it, that's a danger sign. We saw that last year with Apple ( AAPL).

I think we're seeing it now with Google.

The fact is that Google's "dominance" of the mobile market with Android isn't making Google a lot of money. Android is open source, it's free and some of those who use it, like Amazon.com ( AMZN), tweak it to make it unrecognizable, even using Microsoft's ( MSFT) search engine as their default.

Speaking of which, you do know that Microsoft takes roughly $25 off the top on each Android sale, as Canada's National Post reported, because its lawyers convinced the world it owns Linux? You also know that Samsung, the largest maker of Android phones, keeps threatening to de-Google its own version of Android, as The Wall Street Journal wrote just this week, and is investing in an alternative called Bada?

What we're left with in the device space is co-founder Sergey Brin and his "Google Glasses," which he insists we'll all be wearing soon because it's less "emasculating" than carrying a phone in our pockets, as he told CNN. Here, he's playing Jerry Lewis to CEO Larry Page's Dean Martin, Costello to Page's Abbott, Martin to Page's Rowan. Kumar to Page's Harold.

He's the comic relief.

Google is trying very hard to diversify away from advertising, but it's hard to see profits anywhere else. Are YouTube subscriptions going to overtake Netflix ( NFLX) any time soon? Are Google cloud services going to replace Amazon Web Services, and will either side make a dime off it anyway? Is Google really going to take share from Amazon in shopping? Is Google Plus about to stick a fork in Facebook?

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