WASHINGTON (AP) â¿¿ A measure of U.S. industrial production set to be released Friday is likely to show that factory output was held back in January because of a down month at American automakers. Economists forecast that output at the nation's factories, mines and utilities increased 0.2 percent, according to a survey by FactSet. The Federal Reserve will release the report at 9:15 a.m. EST Friday. Factory output, the most important component of industrial production, posted solid gains in November and December, offering hope that manufacturing could be picking up after faltering through most of 2012. Some economists say the report Friday will show the momentum was temporary blunted in January because production of autos and auto parts declined. The auto industry is coming off its best year for sales in five years, one of the few bright spots in an otherwise bleak manufacturing sector. Many factories have been hurt by a slowdown in consumer spending and weaker global growth that has dampened demand for U.S. exports. Economists expect healthier output in 2013, partly because U.S. companies are sitting on large amounts of cash and appear poised to invest some of it in equipment and machinery. Economies in Europe are also healing, and growth in Asia is expected to improve. A closely watched survey of U.S. manufacturing conditions showed the year got off to a good start. Manufacturing activity grew last month at the fastest pace since April, according to the Institute for Supply Management. Factories saw growth in new orders, hired more workers and boosted their stockpiles after two months of declines, the survey noted. Slower growth in stockpiles was a key reason the economy shrank at an annual rate of 0.1 percent in the October-December quarter, the first contraction in 3 Â½ years. Deep cuts in defense spending and fewer exports also contributed to the decline.
Still, economists expect that figure will be revised in the coming months to show a small increase. That's because December trade data, which wasn't available when the government calculated its first estimate for fourth-quarter growth, showed solid growth in exports.Economists at Barclays Capital estimate the economy expanded at a 0.5 percent rate in the fourth quarter. And growth will likely pick up in the January-March quarter to an annual rate of 1.5 percent, analysts forecast. A better job market could boost consumer spending, leading to faster U.S. growth. Employers added 157,000 jobs in January and an average of 200,000 jobs a month since November. U.S. factories have added jobs for the past four months. Still, unemployment remains high at 7.9 percent. And Americans are seeing smaller paychecks this year because of an increase in Social Security taxes, which could offset any benefits from stronger hiring.