Weekly Review of the Key Levels for the U.S. Capital Markets
The Yield on the 10-Year Treasury Note (1.950%): The weekly chart still favors higher yields, but my annual pivot at 1.981% remained a magnet after a testing 2.059% on Monday. The record low yield was set at 1.377% on July 25, which was before the Federal Reserve announced both QE3 and QE4. This implies that additional Fed purchases of longer dated U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities are factored into the overall structure of the bond markets. My annual and semiannual value levels are 2.476% and 3.063% with the annual pivot at 1.981% and a monthly risky level at 1.843%. Comex Gold ($1671.8): The gold bubble popped at $1,923.7 in September 2011 and attempts to re-inflate the bubble have failed. The base of the popped bubble is the $1,525.0 level, which held at the end of 2011. My annual value level is $1,599.9 with semiannual, monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at $1,719.2, $1,793.8, $1,802.9 and $1,852.1. Nymex Crude Oil ($96.21): The oil bubble popped at $147.27 in July 2008, and the 200-week simple moving average has been a magnet since June 2009 and is now a support at $85.86. So far in February, my monthly and quarterly pivots at $96.21 and $95.84 have been magnets and my annual risky levels at $115.23 and $115.42 are well below the all time high. The Euro vs. the Dollar (1.3391): The euro versus the dollar traded above its 200-week SMA at 1.3529 last week to a 52-week high at 1.3709. The euro is above quarterly and annual pivots at 1.3334 and 1.3257, and is back below a monthly pivot at 1.3570. The Dow industrial Average (13,944): Quarterly and annual value levels are 13,668, 12,696 and 12,509 with monthly and semiannual risky levels at 14,132 and 14,323. The October 2007 high is 14,198.10 with the all-time closing high is 14,164.53 set on Oct. 9, 2007. We are tracking the all-time closing high because a new all-time closing high would confirm a Dow Theory Buy Signal. The S&P 500 (1509.4): Quarterly and annual value levels are 1431.1 and 1348.3 with monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1542.9 and 1566.9. The October 2007 high is 1576.09.