75% try medication following a doctor consultation. (This is a high estimate.)
30% require an alternative to hormone replacement therapy
5% peak market share for Serada
90% patients given a prescription choose to fill it.
50% likelihood prescriptions are filled with Serada first, instead of generic substitution with gabapentin. (Note: Serada is "extended release" yet needs to be dosed twice daily. There is no evidence that this confers any benefit over generic gabapentin from a managed care perspective so it is likely Serada will have a low-tier formulary status and will frequently be subject to generic substitution.)
Average course of treatment: Three months (Note: 30% of patients failed to complete the studies so there is no reason to believe real world experience would be different. In fact, I would predict a high drop-off rate after the first prescrioption. Serada does not demonstrate persistent effects beyond 4 weeks under clinical trial conditions, so it is extremely unlikely the average course of therapy will be as high as nine months).
Average cost per script: $225
Serada peak Sales Estimate: 10 million potential patients x 75% x 30% x 5% x 90% x 50% x 3 x $225 = $34 million peak sales. Disclosure: Chaudhry owns March puts in Depomed.