All That Excitement Over BlackBerry 10 Was Really Dumb

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- It's clear that the people who move stocks are big traders, momentum guys and self-described long-term investors who have no idea how to invest for the long-term.

How else can you explain this market's irrationality?

And I'm not talking about ( AMZN), Facebook ( FB) and Netflix ( NFLX) UP, Apple ( AAPL) DOWN. Whether you think these battleground stocks should be going in the directions they are or not, credible bull cases support AMZN, FB and NFLX optimism and AAPL pessimism.

It's easy for me to wrap my head around the AMZN bull case; maybe not so much for you, but that doesn't mean you should discount my argument. As difficult as it is for me to take my own prediction of NFLX to $300 seriously, I still see the logic that underlies decisions to buy the stock in the face of what I consider an uphill climb.

An investor goes into a long or short play on all four names with, by and large, sound logic. If this was debate class, I could take either side of the investment (not talking about a trade here) and make the case for or against AMZN, FB, NFLX and AAPL. You're going to get some of these calls wrong. That's expected. Ultimately, the way you manage your overall portfolio dictates how badly a miss or two hurts.

With that said, there's no logic underlying some of the moves we have seen in other stocks that moved higher in 2013. You simply cannot make a credible case for buying these dogs, Dell ( DELL). Radio Shack ( RSH). Best Buy ( BBY) and the artist formerly known as Research in Motion ( RIMM).

Have a look ... DELL Chart DELL data by YCharts

I could go on all day about all four companies, but I must focus on one. Like the others, there's no reason why RIMM should have run at all, let alone as much as it did.

I need to understand how these runs happen. And if they happen the way I think they do, I'm more depressed than I was the other day about Apple.

So people buy these types of stocks on some whiff of false optimism. With Dell and Best Buy, you get long for no other reason than playing the prospects of a buyout. Same with Radio Shack, plus when such a well-known name gets that "cheap," people feel compelled to act on the it can't go much lower impulse. All awful reasons to make an investment, even if you're just taking the shares for a quick ride.

RIM's run was all about BlackBerry 10-related hype. We see the phones. They're not horrible -- BlackBerries, even after the brand fell behind, became uncool and imploded, never are. But they're certainly nothing to write home about.

For now, all RIM has to show for all of the hype and 50% worth of upside (not only about 10%) is another iPhone knockoff and a name change that came at least 2 to 3 years too late.

The flippers probably got out of this thing before the BB10 event even happened. Unless you decide to close the trade for a much smaller profit than you had a couple of days ago -- assuming you got in early to still have a profit -- I have to wonder about your sanity. RIMM is not a value play. Never was. Isn't now. Probably never will be.

The same logic that keeps AAPL down propped RIMM up.

The market sold AAPL off a year too soon because although we have no real evidence as of yet to support the notion, we think Apple lost its mojo. Just the opposite with RIMM: We have no evidence to support our optimism, but, hey, what the hell, let's bid this carcass up.

That's how it went down. RIM finally has a new phone to sell. They're actually going to make an announcement about it. Buy the stock. Nothing changed. There's no real promise that anything ever will change, but the freak stock doubles as AAPL crashes $250. Wow.

Does the chicken or the egg come first in this type of situation?

Who starts the run? Do flippers, traders and momentum players decide to pile in first? They create a little upside, something positive comes out in the media and "value" investors start buying shares. Then we have a run. Or does the "value" crowd create the momentum and the traders follow?

I'm not sure it matters, but the process interests me.

Just as I argue that long-term investors should prudently sit out near-term gains in AAPL, I would hope that most also shy away from placing bets on dead cat bounces in DELL, RSH, BBY or RIMM. Certainly there's money to be made there; however, if you make it a habit of poking in the dark like that -- placing what amounts to a hollow, uninformed bet -- you're going to end up hurt sooner or later.

-- Written by Rocco Pendola in Santa Monica, Calif.

Rocco Pendola is TheStreet's Director of Social Media. Pendola's daily contributions to TheStreet frequently appear on CNBC and at various top online properties, such as Forbes.

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