- For example, among personal auto carriers, 92% of large respondents use predictive modeling, a number that drops to 76% for midsize carriers and 57% for small carriers.
- The trend also holds true to a lesser extent for standard commercial lines such as commercial auto, where the percentage of respondents that currently use predictive models decreases from 62% for large carriers to 6% for small carriers.
P&C insurers diverge on ways they use predictive modeling for their business. Personal lines carriers are more likely to use models for automated renewal decisions and for pricing than commercial lines insurers. With respect to claim applications, personal lines carriers are more likely to use modeling to detect fraud, while commercial lines carriers use it more to triage claims or to evaluate claims for litigation potential. Dependent variable targeting differs, too, with nearly two-thirds of personal lines carriers modeling on frequency and severity separately, and less than one-quarter modeling on loss ratios.Challenges and Priorities The survey examined insurers’ most pressing challenges for implementing modeling and ways to improve on techniques. All carriers said they struggle with data and people challenges when incorporating data modeling into rating or underwriting plans, but differences emerged by size of carrier . Nearly three-fourths (73%) of large carriers cited both data and IT resource constraints as their top two challenges, while nearly two-thirds (64%) of midsize carriers ranked IT resource constraints and over three-fifths (61%) listed cultural challenges as their biggest hurdles. Seventy-five percent of small carriers ranked data as their biggest challenge, followed by people challenges (55%). “For large carriers, the sheer volume of customers, producers, data and business lines, combined with cumbersome legacy systems, may explain why data and IT resources present challenges,” said Stoll. “Smaller carriers report data challenges, but don’t voice as much concern about IT resource constraints. This may reflect how, by comparison, the challenge of making better use of their limited data dwarfs other concerns.” Insurers’ top priorities for improving their modeling techniques differ by line of business. Personal lines carriers intend to spend more time focusing on non-pricing applications, such as development of target marketing lists. Many of these carriers are ready to extend the use of predictive modeling to gain market share in competitive consumer markets. Conversely, over one-quarter of commercial lines respondents indicated that monitoring experience against modeling results will be a higher priority in 2013, in addition to enhancing modeling approaches.
Financial ImpactThe survey also explored predictive modeling’s impact on insurers’ financial results. Most carriers have improved their bottom-line profitability through predictive model implementation; top-line growth impacts have been less pervasive. Personal lines carriers have realized more benefit from implementation in all measures of top- and bottom-line performance. Midsize and large carriers reported significantly more favorable bottom-line impacts from predictive modeling, particularly in the areas of loss ratio improvement and profitability. The time elapsed for respondents to actually see financial results varies significantly, with top-line impacts on performance emerging more quickly than those for the bottom line. While most participants said they begin seeing revenue results in a year or less, the time to realize net income results is frequently two years. “The lead time to realize both top- and bottom-line impacts tends to be much longer in commercial lines. It will be interesting to see whether these times will shorten as carriers continue to feel more comfortable with predictive modeling efforts and become better versed in implementation,” said Southwood. About the Survey Towers Watson’s fourth annual Predictive Modeling Survey included executives from U.S. and Canadian P&C insurers. A total of 63 U.S. and nine Canadian executives responded. Responding companies represent a significant share of the U.S. P&C insurance market for both personal lines carriers (17%) and commercial lines carriers (21%). Respondents were relatively evenly divided among small, midsize and large P&C insurers, as measured by 2011 annual direct written premium, and between carriers that primarily write either personal lines or commercial lines business. Roughly 13% of respondents split their business evenly between personal lines and commercial lines. With its range of advanced analytical and modeling software, Towers Watson helps insurers improve pricing performance through predictive modeling. About Towers Watson Towers Watson (NYSE, NASDAQ: TW) is a leading global professional services company that helps organizations improve performance through effective people, risk and financial management. The company offers solutions in the areas of benefits, talent management, rewards, and risk and capital management. Towers Watson has 14,000 associates around the world and is located on the web at towerswatson.com.