In the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2012, the decrease in the rate of growth was more pronounced in our industrial production business. This is in sharp contrast to the first quarter of 2012 where the growth was more pronounced in the industrial production business, a trend that had also existed in 2011 and 2010. The first quarter and prior quarters were a direct counter to the 2009 contraction, which was more severe in our industrial production business and less severe in the maintenance portion of our manufacturing business.  

The best way to understand the change in our industrial production business is to examine the results in our fastener product line. In the first three months of 2012, the daily sales growth in our fastener product line was approximately 15.4%. This growth dropped to 10.5%, 6.1%, and 8.6% in April, May, and June, respectively, and then averaged 6.0% and 2.6% in the third and fourth quarters, respectively. By contrast, the best way to understand the change in the maintenance portion of the manufacturing business is to examine the results in our non-fastener product lines. In the first three months of 2012, the daily sales growth in our non-fastener business was approximately 25.1%. This dropped to 24.4%, 19.0%, and 19.6% in April, May, and June, respectively, and averaged 18.0% and 13.6% in the third and fourth quarters, respectively. The non-fastener business has demonstrated relative resilience in 2012, when compared to our fastener business and to the distribution industry in general, due to our strong FAST Solutions SM (industrial vending) program; this is discussed in greater detail later in this document.

The patterns related to the industrial production business, as noted above, are influenced by the movements noted in the Purchasing Manufacturers Index ('PMI') published by the Institute for Supply Management ( http://www.ism.ws/), which is a composite index of economic activity in the United States manufacturing sector. The PMI in 2012, 2011, and 2010 was as follows:
  Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.
2012 54.1 52.4 53.4 54.8 53.5 49.7 49.8 49.6 51.5 51.7 49.5 50.7
2011 59.9 59.8 59.7 59.7 54.2 55.8 51.4 52.5 52.5 51.8 52.2 53.1
2010 56.7 55.8 59.3 59.0 58.8 56.0 55.7 57.4 56.4 57.0 58.0 57.3

For background to readers not familiar with the PMI index, it is a monthly indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector. Five major indicators that influence the PMI index are new orders, inventory levels, productions, supplier deliveries, and the employment environment. When a PMI of 50 or higher is reported, this indicates expansion in the manufacturing industry compared to the previous month. If the PMI is below 50, this represents a contraction in the manufacturing sector.

If you liked this article you might like

Why You Must Immediately Short Amazon, Starbucks, Disney and 3 Other Stocks

Why You Should Short Amazon, Starbucks, Disney and These Other Stocks

No Good Stock Left Behind: Cramer's 'Mad Money' Recap (Tuesday 7/25/17)

Hertz Global Holdings, Honeywell, PetMed Express, Allergan: 'Mad Money' Lightning Round

Why Fastenal May Be One of the Best Second-Half Buys