Mojo Shifting for Apple, Amazon and Google

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- Apple ( AAPL) traded below $500 per share Monday on reports of cuts in orders for LCD screens on weaker than expected demand for the iPhone 5. Amazon.com ( AMZN) traded to an all-time high at $274.26 on continued Wall Street upgrades. Google ( GOOG) traded lower Monday alleviating an overbought condition on its daily chart and is trading between its all-time high at $774.38 set on Oct. 5 and its Nov. 16 low at $636.00.

On Jan. 3, I wrote Polishing Apple's Profile for 2013 and on Monday Apple gapped lower trading below my annual value level at $510.64, which is now a magnet for the remainder of 2013. Apple remains "four-engine" buy rated according to www.ValuEngine.com with fair value at $600.49, which makes the stock 16.4% undervalued in the computer & technology sector, which is 12.4% overvalued.

At Apple's all-time high of $705.07 on Sept. 21 the stock tested the ValuEngine one-year price target at that time. Today the one-year price target is $533.46, which is a projected gain of 6.3% setting the buy rating.



Even after Monday's price break Apple is still up 20.6% over the last 12 months and now has a 12 month forward price-to-earnings ratio of just 9.6. Apple reports its Q4 quarterly results on Jan. 23 and Wall Street analysts project that the company will earn $13.43 per share. It will be important to track whether or not this EPS estimate is lowered over the next week. Despite a price decline from above $700 to below $500 most analysts stubbornly keep their lofty ratings and price targets with a median price target of $745 and 21 strong buy and 28 buy ratings, six hold ratings, and only two underperform and one sell rating.

The daily chart for Apple ($501.75) is negative and the weekly chart shows oversold Mojo with the stock below its five-week modified moving average at $530.44. My semiannual and annual value levels are $470.21 and $421.05 with my annual pivot at $510.64 with weekly, monthly, and semiannual risky levels at $538.18, $604.86 and $651.60.

Amazon remains "three-engine" hold rated according to ValuEngine with fair value at $208.84, which makes the stock 30.6% overvalued in the retail-wholesale sector, which is 11.6% overvalued.

Amazon set an all time high of $274.26 on Monday versus the ValuEngine one-year price target at $281.26, which limits the upside potential. The stock is up 52.9% over the last 12 months and has a ludicrous 12 month forward P/E of 157.5. Amazon reports its Q4 quarterly results on Feb. 5 and Wall Street analysts project that the company will earn 29 cents per share. Wall Street analysts have a median price target at $290 with 12 strong buy ratings, 15 buys, 10 holds and one underperform.

The daily chart for Amazon ($272.73) shows overbought Mojo and the weekly chart profile is positive with the stock above its five-week MMA at $256.74. My quarterly, monthly and semiannual value levels are $255.75, $248.95 and $241.23 with weekly and semiannual risky levels at $284.00 and $307.64.

Google remains "three-engine" hold rated according to ValuEngine with fair value at $621.89, which makes the stock 16.3% overvalued. The stock's one-year price target is $757.57, which is below the all time high at $774.38. The stock is up 15.7% over the last 12 months and has a reasonable 12 month forward P/E of 19.0. Google reports its Q4 quarterly results on Jan. 22 and Wall Street analysts project that the company will earn $8.63 per share, up 2 cents from what was posted on Monday. Wall Street analysts have a median price target at $810 with 11 strong buy ratings, 20 buys and 10 holds.

The daily chart for Google ($723.25) shows that Mojo is declining from overbought territory and the weekly chart profile is positive with the stock above its five-week MMA at $713.15. My quarterly and semiannual value levels are $660.40 and $546.44 with a monthly pivot at $734.47 and weekly and semiannual risky levels at $771.95 and $854.04.

At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.
Richard Suttmeier has an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a master of science from Brooklyn Poly. He began his career in the financial services industry in 1972 trading U.S. Treasury securities in the primary dealer community. In 1981 he formed the Government Bond Department at LF Rothschild and helped establish that firm as a primary dealer in 1986. Richard began writing market research in 1984 and held positions as market strategist at firms such as Smith Barney, William R Hough, Joseph Stevens, and Rightside Advisors. He joined www.ValuEngine.com in 2008 producing newsletters covering the U.S. capital markets, and a universe of more than 7,000 stocks. Richard employs a "buy and trade" investment strategy and can be reached at RSuttmeier@Gmail.com.

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