NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners is known for his accurate stock market calls and keen insights into the economy, which he shares with RealMoney Pro readers in his daily trading diary.Among his posts this past week, Kass shares some negative Apple ( AAPL) headlines, talks about the earnings cliff and explains why the short Treasury ETF looks interesting. Please
It's the Earnings Cliff
Originally published on Friday, Dec. 14 at 8:58 a.m. EST.
- No rush to buy now .
Friday's Apple Negative Headlines
Originally published on Friday, Dec. 14 at 11:34 a.m. EST.
- What's doing the rounds.
- Several more negative sell-side calls on weak supply chain checks (Apple, Jabil ( JBL), etc). See comments from DB Asia/Japan. AAPL iPhone 5 launch in China uneventful with lines small: WSJ. Hon-Hai -5% (Largan limit down & LPL hit Thursday) on AAPL iPhone 5 demand concerns. Several more articles out overnight about NAND/DRAM pricing continuing to rip higher. Apple's Decision To Make The New iMacs Super Thin
The Short Treasury ETF Gets Interesting
Originally published on Thursday, Dec. 13 at 12:50 p.m. EST.
- The TBT has fallen to a level that should be near support.
Chasing the Dragon
Originally published on Monday, Dec. 10 at 10:20 a.m. EST.
- The economic data out of China has clearly improved.
Little Second-Level Thinking About China Two Months AgoAt that time, I wrote that too many were worrying and embracing the technical breakdown. But there was no second-level thinking regarding how poorly Chinese stocks were being valued (in absolute terms and relative to other emerging and developed markets (like U.S. stocks).Three months ago, the current valuation metrics for Chinese companies were growing cheaper by the day, with forward P/E multiples of only 7.8x, an average dividend yield 3.9% and with a lowly price-to-book of 1.3x. The Chinese stock market has risen by only about 5% since then, so the stocks still appear dirt cheap in both absolute and relative terms. By contrast, the S&P 500 trades today at a bit over 14x earnings, has an average dividend yield of 1.9% and price-to-book value is 2.1x.As I wrote previously, there remains a lot of distance/daylight between the valuation of Chinese stocks and U.S. stocks. My question is if China is indeed the growth driver of the world's economic community, doesn't this highlight how cheap stocks can get when growth is in question? But now that the growth prospects are mending in China, I suspect the sharp undercut to value months ago for Chinese stocks will be followed by the potential for a surprising rally over the next few quarters. The fundamental improvement in Chinese stocks has now been accompanied by a sharp reversal in improving technical backdrop for equities over there. (This is something Sir Denny Gartman recently highlighted in his daily newsletter). Several highly-regarded technicians have joined the FXI train in recent days and I expect the rally in Chinese stocks in 2013 will be one of next year's biggest surprises. Position: Long FXI
Chasing the Dragon (Part Deux)
Originally published on Monday, Dec. 10 at 1:40 p.m. EST.
- Goldman Sachs weighs in.