The Odds of a Big One
While the Project's quantitative hurricane forecast for 2013 will not be released until April 10, the group's Dec. 7 Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2013 includes a "qualitative discussion" on various factors underlining a very busy period for hurricane activity, that is likely to continue. According to the Dec. 7 report, the past seven years have been quite unusual, with no major hurricanes hitting the mainland, following a very difficult 2004 and 2005, "when seven of 13 major hurricanes made U.S. landfall," including the catastrophic Hurricane Katrina, which hit New Orleans in late August 2005. The Tropical Meteorology Project said that "The last 100-year climatology indicates that approximately 30% of all major hurricanes that form in the Atlantic basin make U.S. landfall as major hurricanes." While the Dec. 7 report didn't contain specific number predictions, it did include probabilities for tropical storm and hurricane hits for 2013. The probability of a "named storm" hitting the East Coast, including Florida, is 81%, while the probability of Category 1 or 2 hurricane hitting is 44%, with a 31% probability of a major hurricane of Category 3, 4 or 5 making landfall, during 2013.