So what could this mean?

One possible scenario could be that the Nexus program continues seemingly unchanged, but that Motorola's new devices launched in 2013 will be de-facto Nexus devices but simply be called something else. This way, Google gets around the political conflict using tried-and-true semantics: "It's not a tax; it's a fee."

Bottom line: The Nexus 5 is mostly about cost reduction and simplification. The price will be driven down, perhaps eventually approaching $199 unsubsidized. Furthermore, a "second" de-facto Nexus line could be launched from the Motorola division, but would be called something else so as to avoid a peculiar form of "channel conflict."

We will know more on May 15.

At the time of publication the author had a position in AAPL, GOOG and QCOM.

This article was written by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.

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