It's easy to do what Ballmer is doing: feign actual visionary change. That's all the Surface tablet and a traditional/touch-screen Windows OS is. It's not to say Surface is awful hardware (though you legitimately could) or Windows 8 is bad software (it's not, at least from cosmetic and basic-use standpoints), but it has not/will not wow people enough to change the game. Apple ( AAPL) makes the rules. Microsoft, along with Hewlett Packard ( HPQ) (Meg Whitman makes CEO No. 5 who needs to lose the title), play by them. Meg says naturally, HP must do a smartphone. That's weak. And it's not much different at Microsoft. Apple made touch screens, smartphones and tablets the standard; Ballmer fell in line. No true innovation. Nothing new. And the worst part of it all, Ballmer can take Xbox and wrangle complete control of the living room. That's what Microsoft's next CEO needs to do -- go after Apple where there's actually a realistic chance of winning or, at the very least, making a dent. So what moves do I actually think will get made? I could see them all happening, believe it or not, but following is the order of perceived likelihood: 1. Pincus. 2. Joly. 3. Whitman. 4. Hastings. 5. Ballmer. Follow @rocco_thestreet-- Written by Rocco Pendola in Santa Monica, Calif.