JPMorgan and the Fiscal Cliff
JPMorgan Chase's shares have now returned 32% year-to-date, following a 20% decline during 2011. The shares trade for 1.2 times tangible book value, according to Thomson Reuters Bank Insight, and for eight times the consensus 2013 earnings estimate of $5.30. The consensus 2014 EPS estimate is $5.69. Based on a quarterly payout of 30 cents, the shares have a dividend yield of 2.82%. Guggenheim analyst Marty Mosby on Friday said in a report that for large-cap banks, "earnings per share could remain relatively flat in 2013 if impacts from Fiscal Cliffs push the economy back into a mini-recession," but under that scenario, earnings would bounce back by over 25% in 2014, "as a traditional bank recovery would ensue once the economy regained its current momentum." Under his "baseline" scenario, with the fiscal cliff being averted, Mosby estimates that JPMorgan Chase's revenue will be flat in 2013 from 2012, but that efficiency improvements and share repurchases will lead to an increase in earnings per share of 9%. Under his "recession" scenario, Mosby sees JPMorgan's revenue declining by 3%, with EPS still growing by 7%. Mosby rates JPMorgan Chase a "Buy," with a $55 price target, and is out in front of the consensus, estimating the company will earn $5.60 a share in 2013, increasing to $6.60 in 2014. JPM data by YCharts
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