|Humana’s Investor Meeting 2012|
|Business Session – Tuesday, November 13, 2012; 8:30 a.m. EST Webcast available via Investor Relations page at www.humana.com|
|Company Overview||Bruce Broussard||President|
|Public Affairs||Heidi Margulis||Senior Vice President – Public Affairs|
|Health and Well-Being Services Segment||Bruce Perkins||Segment President|
|Retail Segment||Tom Liston||Segment President|
|Employer Group Segment||Beth Bierbower||Segment President|
|Financials||Jim Bloem||Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer|
|Wrap-Up Q&A||Bruce Broussard Jim Murray||President Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer|
|Closing||Mike McCallister||Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer|
- If Humana does not design and price its products properly and competitively, if the premiums Humana charges are insufficient to cover the cost of health care services delivered to its members, if the company is unable to implement clinical initiatives to provide a better health care experience for its members, lower costs and appropriately document the risk profile of its members, or if its estimates of benefit expenses are inadequate, Humana’s profitability could be materially adversely affected. Humana estimates the costs of its benefit expense payments, and designs and prices its products accordingly, using actuarial methods and assumptions based upon, among other relevant factors, claim payment patterns, medical cost inflation, and historical developments such as claim inventory levels and claim receipt patterns. These estimates, however, involve extensive judgment, and have considerable inherent variability because they are extremely sensitive to changes in payment patterns and medical cost trends.
- If Humana fails to effectively implement its operational and strategic initiatives, including its Medicare initiatives, the company’s business may be materially adversely affected, which is of particular importance given the concentration of the company’s revenues in the Medicare business.
- If Humana fails to properly maintain the integrity of its data, to strategically implement new information systems, to protect Humana’s proprietary rights to its systems, or to defend against cyber-security attacks, the company’s business may be materially adversely affected.
- Humana’s business may be materially adversely impacted by CMS’s adoption of a new coding set for diagnoses.
- Humana is involved in various legal actions and governmental and internal investigations, including without limitation, an ongoing internal investigation and litigation and government requests for information related to certain aspects of its Florida subsidiary operations, any of which, if resolved unfavorably to the company, could result in substantial monetary damages. Increased litigation and negative publicity could increase the company’s cost of doing business.
- As a government contractor, Humana is exposed to risks that may materially adversely affect its business or its willingness or ability to participate in government health care programs.
- Recently enacted health insurance reform, including The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act and The Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act of 2010, could have a material adverse effect on Humana’s results of operations, including restricting revenue, enrollment and premium growth in certain products and market segments, restricting the company’s ability to expand into new markets, increasing the company's medical and operating costs by, among other things, requiring a minimum benefit ratio on insured products (and particularly how the ratio may apply to Medicare plans, including aggregation, credibility thresholds, and its possible application to prescription drug plans), lowering the company’s Medicare payment rates and increasing the company’s expenses associated with a non-deductible federal premium tax and other assessments; financial position, including the company's ability to maintain the value of its goodwill; and cash flows. In addition, if the new non-deductible federal premium tax and other assessments, including a three-year commercial reinsurance fee, were imposed as enacted, and if Humana is unable to adjust its business model to address these new taxes and assessments, such as through the reduction of the company’s operating costs, there can be no assurance that the non-deductible federal premium tax and other assessments would not have a material adverse effect on the company’s results of operations, financial position, and cash flows.
- Humana’s business activities are subject to substantial government regulation. New laws or regulations, or changes in existing laws or regulations or their manner of application could increase the company’s cost of doing business and may adversely affect the company’s business, profitability and cash flows.
- Any failure to manage operating costs could hamper Humana’s profitability.
- Any failure by Humana to manage acquisitions and other significant transactions successfully may have a material adverse effect on its results of operations, financial position, and cash flows.
- If Humana fails to develop and maintain satisfactory relationships with the providers of care to its members, the company’s business may be adversely affected.
- Humana’s pharmacy business is highly competitive and subjects it to regulations in addition to those the company faces with its core health benefits businesses.
- Changes in the prescription drug industry pricing benchmarks may adversely affect Humana’s financial performance.
- If Humana does not continue to earn and retain purchase discounts and volume rebates from pharmaceutical manufacturers at current levels, Humana’s gross margins may decline.
- Humana’s ability to obtain funds from its subsidiaries is restricted by state insurance regulations.
- Downgrades in Humana’s debt ratings, should they occur, may adversely affect its business, results of operations, and financial condition.
- Changes in economic conditions could adversely affect Humana’s business and results of operations.
- The securities and credit markets may experience volatility and disruption, which may adversely affect Humana’s business.
- Given the current economic climate, Humana’s stock and the stock of other companies in the insurance industry may be increasingly subject to stock price and trading volume volatility.
Humana advises investors to read the following documents as filed by the company with the SEC for further discussion both of the risks it faces and its historical performance:
- Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2011;
- Form 10-Q for the quarters ended March 31, 2012, June 30, 2012 and September 30, 2012;
- Form 8-Ks filed during 2012.
- Annual reports to stockholders;
- Securities and Exchange Commission filings;
- Most recent investor conference presentations;
- Quarterly earnings news releases;
- Replays of most recent earnings release conference calls;
- Calendar of events (including upcoming earnings conference call dates and times, as well as planned interaction with research analysts and institutional investors);
- Corporate Governance information
|Humana Inc. – Earnings Guidance Points as Issued on November 5, 2012|
|(in accordance with Generally Accepted||For the year ending December 31,||Comments|
|Accounting Principles)||2012||2013||Excludes the pending acquisition of|
|Metropolitan Health Networks, Inc.|
|Diluted earnings per common share (EPS)||2013 includes approximately $0.30 per share in investment spending|
|Full Year||$7.25 to $7.35||$7.60 to $7.80|
|Consolidated||$39.0 billion to $39.5 billion||$40.8 billion to $41.3 billion||Includes expected investment income of approximately $385 million for 2012 and in the range of $365 million to $385 million for 2013|
|Retail Segment||$24.5 billion to $25.0 billion||$26.25 billion to $26.75 billion||Segment-level revenues include intersegment amounts that eliminate in consolidation|
|Employer Group Segment||$10.5 billion to $11.0 billion||$11.0 billion to $11.5 billion|
|Health and Well-Being Services Segment||$13.1 billion to $13.3 billion||$14.75 billion to $15.25 billion|
|Other Businesses||$2.50 billion to $2.75 billion||$1.8 billion to $2.1 billion|
|Ending medical membership versus prior year end||Includes the January 1, 2013 disposition of 12,600 Medicare Advantage members acquired in the March 2012 Arcadian transaction in accordance with the company’s previously disclosed agreement with the United States Department of Justice.|
|Medicare Advantage||Up 270,000 to 280,000||Up 100,000 to 120,000|
|Medicare stand-alone PDPs||Up 440,000 to 460,000||Up 125,000 to 175,000|
|Humana One||Up 5,000 to 10,000||Down approximately 45,000|
|Medicare Supplement||Up 15,000 to 25,000||Up 15,000 to 25,000|
|Employer Group Segment|
|Medicare Advantage||Up approximately 80,000||Up approximately 20,000|
|Commercial Fully-Insured||Up approximately 30,000||Down 5,000 to 20,000|
|Commercial ASO||Down 50,000 to 60,000||Down 25,000 to 45,000|
|Benefit ratios||Benefit expenses as a percent of premiums|
|Retail Segment||84.0% to 84.5%||84.0% to 84.5%|
|Employer Group Segment||84.0% to 85.0%||85.0% to 86.0%|
|Operating cost ratios||Consolidated operating costs as a percent of total revenues excluding investment income|
|Consolidated||14.75% to 15.25%||15.0% to 15.5%|
|Health & Well-Being Services Segment||95.25% to 95.75%||95.5% to 96.0%|
|Consolidated depreciation and amortization||$290 million to $310 million||$330 million to $350 million||Certain D&A is included in benefits|
|Income statement||$330 million to $345 million||$380 million to $400 million||expense on the income statement but|
|Cash flows statement||shown as a non-cash item on the cash|
|Consolidated interest expense||Approximately $105 million||Approximately $105 million|
|Detailed pretax results||Segment-level pretax results and margins include the impact of net investment income|
|Retail Segment||$1.10 billion to $1.15 billion 4.5% to 4.7%||$1.29 billion to $1.33 billion Approximately 5% pretax margin|
|Employer Group Segment||$200 million to $210 million Approximately 2% pretax margin||$100 million to $150 million 1.0% to 1.2% pretax margin|
|Health & Well-Being Services Segment||$510 million to $520 million 3.75% to 4.25% pretax margin||$460 million to $510 million 3.0% to 3.5% pretax margin|
|Effective Tax Rate||Approximately 36.8%||Approximately 37%|
|Diluted shares||Approximately 163.5 million||Approximately 161.5 million||Projections exclude the impact of future share repurchases|
|Cash flows from operations||$1.7 billion to $1.9 billion||$1.8 billion to $2.0 billion|
|Capital expenditures||Approximately $400 million||$425 million to $450 million|