- Scenario 1, “Cliff-hanger”: A last-minute deal is struck that preserves many, but not all, of the mandatory cuts and tax increases, leading to anemic 2013 growth, but no recession.
- Scenario 2, “Temporary step back”: Washington decides to delay the pain by continuing most tax breaks and not reducing spending in 2013, pushing the fiscal problems into the future.
- Scenario 3, “Free- falling”: With no agreement between feuding political parties, the US falls off the fiscal cliff, leading to a government shutdown, widespread uncertainty and a likely recession.
While previous Cyclical Market Forums have focused heavily on the eurozone, all three of this quarter’s scenarios presumed that the situation in Europe would remain in a fragile status quo for the near future, although that could change depending on events in the eurozone. The participants nonetheless viewed the eurozone debt crisis as a key factor in coming months.Key Takeaways from the Forum: To see full report, please click here Curt Custard, Head of Global Investment Solutions, Chairman of the Cyclical Market Forum (Chicago) “There is almost no doubt that the fiscal cliff—no matter how it’s resolved—will lead to a drag on GDP growth next year. The question is how much, and if there is political will either to move toward fiscal responsibility with lower growth, or to push for growth at the expense of a continuing, unsustainable long-term fiscal position.” Joshua McCallum, Senior Fixed Income Economist (London) “Regardless of the outcome, the uncertainty caused by the fiscal cliff problem is likely to lead to heightened levels of volatility in the markets. Paradoxically, the VIX—the traditional predictor of volatility—has been at historically low levels, and it has been very cheap to hedge against tail risk.” Comments on Specific Asset Classes: Bruno Bertocci, Global Equity Strategist (Chicago) “As markets are pricing in the ‘end of the world,’ there are plenty of opportunities to make money in equities without a market-wide rise. We believe the long-term recovery of the US housing market will have more impact than the potential political artifice surrounding the fiscal cliff.” Mark Rider, Global Investment Solutions Strategist (Sydney, Australia) “Commodity prices would certainly be affected by a longer-term slowdown in global growth, but other factors also play a significant role in valuations. For instance, the impact of last summer’s drought in the US will likely lead to an extended period of elevated prices for agricultural commodities next year, no matter what happens in Washington.”
Dave Roberts, Global Real Estate Economist (London)“As an asset class, real estate’s income potential, inflation hedging and higher yields should continue to be attractive, especially in times when investors have a profound fear of equity downside and bonds are paying such low yields. Nevertheless, real estate could suffer a short-term hit if the US does indeed plunge off the fiscal cliff.” To see full report, please click here UBS Global Asset Management is a large-scale asset manager with well-diversified businesses across regions, capabilities and distribution channels. It offers investment capabilities and investment styles across all major traditional and alternative asset classes. These include equity, fixed income, currency, hedge fund, real estate, infrastructure and private equity investment capabilities that can also be combined into multi-asset strategies. The Fund Services unit provides professional services including legal fund set-up, accounting and reporting for traditional investment funds and alternative funds. Invested assets worldwide totalled some CHF 569 billion (EUR 473 billion, GBP 382 billion, USD 599 billion) at 30 June 2012. The firm is a leading fund house in Europe, the largest mutual fund manager in Switzerland 1 and one of the largest fund of hedge funds and real estate investment managers in the world. With around 3,700 employees, located in 25 countries, we are a truly global firm. Our principal offices are in London, Chicago, Frankfurt, Hartford, Hong Kong, New York, Paris, Singapore, Sydney, Tokyo and Zurich. The information and opinions contained herein are a reflection of UBS Global Asset Management’s best judgment based on current market assumptions and are considered forward-looking statements. Any obligation to update or alter forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise is disclaimed. There is no assurance that these projections will ultimately be realized. Actual future results may prove to be different from expectations.
About the Cyclical Market ForumAssessing the economic and market environment is a key part of UBS Global Asset Management’s investment strategy-setting process across all investment areas. Our Cyclical Market Forum, open to representatives of all investment teams, regularly debates important economic and market themes and their potential impact on our investment strategies. The Forum’s purpose is to examine the main economic and market drivers – typically through scenario analysis over a 12 to 18-month time horizon – and to foster debate between the teams managing different asset classes. The three economic scenarios discussed should not be considered forecasts. The way in which the output from the Forum is used varies across UBS Global Asset Management’s investment teams and it is just one of a number of inputs into each team’s investment process. One of the key benefits of the Cyclical Market Forum is the opportunity to exchange research and viewpoints from the various investment specialists and to examine the intersection between top-down and bottom-up drivers. As such, it broadens the input into our strategy-setting process in a structured format. www.ubs.com/media Follow us on Twitter: www.ubs.com/twitteramericas