At $640, Apple Prepares to Rally: Opinion

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- The cage rattling continues as Apple (AAPL) is down another $13 on Monday.

Is $640 a key support level? Consider the following two excerpts from Economic Timing posts on Sept. 17 and Sept. 24:
Sept. 17: "The precedent of poor performance following a launch day has us concerned. Last year the iPhone 4S went on sale on Oct. 14, five trading days later the stock had dropped from $422 to $390. In 2010 the iPhone 4 went on sale on June 24, five trading days later the stock had dropped from $273 to $243. Using these metrics calculated in terms of percentage, we believe there is a possibility that Apple will rise above $700 on Friday and then drop significantly one week later. The precedent suggests a 9.25% drop which would put us near $640 a share..."

Sept. 24: "We remain hopeful that this correction will continue to progress throughout the week in accordance with prior sell-offs that occurred in the aftermath of product launches. If this sell-off can get AAPL all the way back to $640-$650 it will provide investors with a compelling entry point ahead of the iPad-mini run up. That easy money run could be a major one. Let's cheer the bears on this week!"

Since those posts, there have been numerous sucker-punch days to suggest a rally but in the end, the historical precedent of a post launch selloff was victorious. At this stage of the game the hedge funds work is over. Hedge funds begin the snowball and ignorant investors finish it.

Any additional sell-off will come from individual long term investors who are getting spooked near the bottom. This fearful group typically sells at the bottom, buys at the top, and wonders why they can never make any money in the 'rigged' stock market.

Don't listen to the media. At this stage of the game they try to affix fundamental rationale to the selloff even if it doesn't exist. The fundamental case for Apple has never been stronger. Anyone who tells you otherwise is misinformed or severely lacking in brain power.

Apple is one week away from adding another product that will sell tens of millions per quarter. The iPhone 5 is producing global pandemonium. This sell-off has nothing to do with design flaws in the iPhone 5.

Are you kidding me, Doug Kass? You want the iPhone to be heavier? Do you have any idea where the future of technology is headed? Five years from now iPhone's will be flirting with weightlessness.

When designing a product that is hand held the ultimate goal is to make it as light as possible. Adding weight to the iPhone 5, as Doug Kass suggested Apple do, would be the most ridiculous design decision in the history of technology.

Thank goodness we have progressive minds like Jonny Ive and Tim Cook making the decisions and not cave dwellers like Doug Kass. iPhone 5 and iPad mini are evidence that Apple is flourishing in the aftermath of the Steve Jobs era. Apple is churching out space age technology while NASA sits dumbfounded.

If you want to criticize leadership, look at NASA, Dell ( DELL), Research In Motion ( RIMM) and the copy-cat group of South Koreans known as Samsung. Doug Kass probably didn't like the MacBook Air either. Does he still use one of the Dell laptop bricks that were popular ten years ago? Sometimes the media surprises me with their incompetence and complete stupidity.

Tim Cook is taking Apple to heights that Steve Jobs may never have reached. The iPad mini is the evidence.

At the time of publication the author had a position in AAPL.

This article was written by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.

Jason Schwarz is an option strategist for Lone Peak Asset Management in Westlake Village, Calif. He is also the founder of the popular investment newsletter available at www.economictiming.com. Over the past few years, Schwarz has gained acclaim for his market calls on the price of oil, Bank of America, Apple, E*Trade, and his precision investing in S&P 500 option LEAPS. His book, The Alpha Hunter, is set to be released by McGraw Hill in December 2009.

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