NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Tesla (TSLA) and Fisker received some unexpected attention in lastWednesday's presidential debate. There are some important differencesbetween these two companies, however. This article outlines my theoryof what will happen to Fisker in the coming months and years.But first, Tesla. The Tesla story is simple in comparison, in thatthere is hardly any doubt about how this company will progress for thenext several years, short of an M&A event. Tesla has over 12,000 refundable $5,000 (and up) reservations for itshatchback, the Model S. Prices range from $57,400 to just over$100,000. Tesla has delivered approximately 300 cars since productionstarted in June, making for a much slower ramp that it expected whenit started. Unfortunately for Tesla, the calendar year break comes in theearly/middle phase of its ramp to 20,000 cars per year. Instead ofreaching "cruising altitude" by Thanksgiving, this now looks to happenby February, barring further production issues. All in all, however, the Tesla story remains on track for near-certainsuccess. Tesla will make and sell close to 20,000 Model S cars in2013, reaching profitability. In early 2014, the Model X minivancomes online, adding another 10,000 to 15,000 cars per year. Then, in2015 or 2016 at the latest, Tesla should launch its lower-costplatform, competing for cars near the $40,000 mark. All the while, Tesla's investors Mercedes and Toyota ( TM) are or have beengenerating extra high-margin revenue for a couple of their new cars.Much of Tesla's enterprise value comes from its patents and other IPassociated with its focus on its signature drivetrain technology.Then add the unique sales (stores) model, which has largely appliedthe Apple ( AAPL) model to the automotive industry.
FiskerSo basically, Tesla is all set. But what about Fisker, which waslumped into Tesla in last week's presidential debate mention? Fisker remains privately held, with Kleiner Perkins being one of thelead investors. The spectacularly beautiful Karma car is the closestthing to a four-door Ferrari. Close competitors include the Aston MartinRapide and Porsche Panamera. The problem with the $110,000 or so Karma is primarily that it hasn'tsold very well. Only approximately 3,000 have been manufactured, andprobably no more than 2,000 have been sold.
- GM: The Volt, the upcoming Spark and Cadillac ELR
- Ford: The C-Max Energi, Fusion Energi and Focus Electric
- Honda: The Accord plug-in hybrid and the Fit Electric
- Toyota: The Prius plug-in and RAV4 Electric
- BMW: The i3, the i8 and Active Tourer
- Mercedes: The Smart Electric, B-Class Electric and SLS Electric
- Nissan: The LEAF, Infiniti LE and a few vans
- Mitsubishi: The MiEV and the Outlander Electric
- Volvo: A couple of models...
- VW/Audi/Porsche: Numerous models starting with the VW e-Up
- Land Rover: The new Range Rover in a plug-in hybrid version