Regarding Vivus ( VVUS) and its newly launched obesity pill, Robert S. writes, "Thanks for the news on the Qysmia launch date. Will you be tracking the sales/prescriptions and share with your readers?" I'll do my best. Tracking the Qsymia launch through third-party data services like IMS Health and Wolters Kluwer is made more difficult because Vivus is only selling the obesity pill through mail order pharmacies. Investors will be watching the Qsymia launch very closely -- as they will Arena Pharma's Belviq launch as soon as it takes place. I'll definitely pass along any information I can get my hands on.
Mick Waters asks a follow-up question to my discussion of Celsion ( CLSN) in last week's Mailbag: "Regarding the Feuerstein-Ratain rule, is the $300 million market cap measured the day prior to the phase III results being announced? Based on your rule, you would call the Celsion HEAT study to fail with the market cap under $200 million right now?" We used four months prior to data announcement as the time point for the Feuerstein-Ratain rule. If you assume (guess) HEAT study results are coming in November or December, we'd look at Celsion's sub-$300 million market cap in July-August and predict Thermodox failure. The rest of the Feuerstein-Ratain goes like this: Companies with market caps of $1 billion or more was the best predictor of phase III cancer drug success -- 78% of studies analyzed positive. The results for companies with markets caps greater than $300 million but less than $1 billion was mixed -- 18% success rate. "Bear at Night" responded to the same Celsion discussion, questioning whether the Feuerstein-Ratain rule should apply to Thermodox. "Not sure the Feuerstein-Ratain rule should apply, since you studied companies with new drugs rather than drug delivery systems. Thermodox is just a way of releasing in high concentrations a drug