Capital One: Financial Loser

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- Capital One ( COF) was the loser among the largest U.S. financial names on Tuesday, with shares declining 1.5% to close at $57.88.

The broad indexes ended mixed, after FedEx ( FDX) announced earnings of $1.45 a share for its fiscal first quarter ended Aug. 31, down a penny from a year earlier, while projecting EPS ranging from $1.30 to $1.45 for its fiscal second quarter, and lowering is fiscal 2013 earnings forecast to a range of $6.20 to $6.60, from $6.90 to $7.40. CEO Frederick Smith said that "weakness in the global economy constrained revenue growth at FedEx Express during our first quarter." The company's shares declined over 3% to close at $86.55.

On a brighter note, the National Association of Home Builders reported that the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rose for a fifth consecutive month, to a reading of 40, bringing the index "its highest reading since June of 2006."

The KBW Bank Index ( I:BKX) declined slightly to close at 50.54, with all but four of the 24 index components down for the session.

Capital One's shares have now returned 37% year-to-date, following a flat return during 2011.

The shares trade for 1.7 times tangible book value, according to Thomson Reuters Bank Insight, and for eight times the consensus 2013 earnings estimate of $6.92, among analysts polled by Thomson Reuters. The consensus 2012 EPS estimate is $6.15.

After reviewing the company's August credit quality data for managed U.S. credit card, automobile finance and its international segment filed on Monday, KBW analyst Sanjay Sakhrani on Tuesday reiterated his "Outperform" rating for Capital One, with a $70 price target.

Sakhrani said that Capital One's "credit quality in August was mixed across the segments," and that it appeared "that credit quality is trending worse than our expectations for the quarter, with the exception of the international card segment."

The third quarter will be Capital One's first full quarter since the company completed its purchase of HSBC's U.S. credit card portfolio ( HBC) in June.

Sakhrani said that Capital One's net charge-off rate for U.S. credit cards "decreased 4 bps seq. to 2.58% and has averaged 2.60% QTD in 3Q12, which compares to 2.86% in 2Q12 and our estimate of 2.23% for 3Q12," and that the 30-day+ delinquency rate for the portfolio "was up 28 bps to 3.37% in August, which compared to 2.79% in 2Q12 and our estimate of 2.87% for 3Q12."

On the other hand, the analyst estimated "that the US charge-off rate was essentially flat at about 4% sequentially from July. Furthermore, if one were to layer in a normalized charge-off rate of about 5.5% for the HSBC portfolio, we estimate the current net charge-off rate is about 4.55%, which compares to our 2013 charge-off rate estimate of 4.76%."

Sakhrani estimate that Capital One will earn $7.01 a share in 2012, and also in 2013.

COF Chart COF data by YCharts

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-- Written by Philip van Doorn in Jupiter, Fla.

>Contact by Email.

Philip W. van Doorn is a member of TheStreet's banking and finance team, commenting on industry and regulatory trends. He previously served as the senior analyst for TheStreet.com Ratings, responsible for assigning financial strength ratings to banks and savings and loan institutions. Mr. van Doorn previously served as a loan operations officer at Riverside National Bank in Fort Pierce, Fla., and as a credit analyst at the Federal Home Loan Bank of New York, where he monitored banks in New York, New Jersey and Puerto Rico. Mr. van Doorn has additional experience in the mutual fund and computer software industries. He holds a bachelor of science in business administration from Long Island University.

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