Facebook Bearishness: Profit From the Absurdity

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Before a friend of mine turned me on to comedian Louis C.K., I had never heard of him. Now, I can't get enough of the guy.

My first exposure was his 2009 appearance on the Conan O'Brien Show. He went on a tear that's relevant to Facebook ( FB) hate and other examples of modern-day investor impatience.

He give us an instant classic: "We live in an amazing, amazing world and it's wasted on the crappiest generation of just spoiled idiots."

Louis hits it on the head. We are a tap-the-touchscreen-and-it's-there people. I'm guilty of it. You're guilty of it. Nobody is immune. And it's not limited to expecting smartphones to respond instantly, airborne WiFi to never go down or flights to never get delayed. This self-entitled attitude and extreme expectation of instant gratification permeates much of society, including the stock market.

Facebook provides an excellent example. While the company might not stand the ultimate test of time, the near future looks solid.

Here's a company started in a dorm room. It has absolutely changed the way the world communicates. You're in touch with people you probably never would have run into otherwise. And it's absolutely addictive, even if you're not the type of person who wastes his or her entire day away on Facebook.

We all know friends who deactivate their accounts only to revive them because they just cannot stay away. It has become cool to shun Facebook, though very few people actually do it. For some reason, we just have to hate, but we can't stay away.

This has something to do with the IPO, but the dynamic that Louis C.K. describes so well also comes into play.

Google ( GOOG) dominates mobile. Pandora ( P) comes in a distant second. From there, Twitter, Facebook, Apple ( AAPL) and Millennial Media ( MM) battle for third through sixth places.

Last week, I spewed some of the data in an ill-timed article about Pandora's mobile success.

The numbers show that several companies monetize mobile quite well. Almost all, particularly Facebook, will see mobile revenues grow exponentially over the next two years. But if you follow the financial media you would think Facebook is in the middle of a turnaround.

Facebook feels like a turnaround play! How so very absurd. We treat the stock worse than we do true losers such as Research in Motion ( RIMM). As much as that bugs me, I'm happy to go with the flow.

Smart long-term investors see through impatient hysteria and buy when others are not only fearful, but acting like "spoiled idiots."

I do not have a line into Mark Zuckerberg and Sheryl Sandberg, so I don't know if it's coming next quarter, the one after or the one after that, but Facebook is about to catch bears off guard. Remember, it gives skimpy guidance (read: none). With nearly 20% of the float short, this story has bear trap written all over it.

The second that eMarketer's data comes even close to looking prescient, look out. The firm predicts Facebook mobile ad revenue will skyrocket from $72.7 million this year to $629.4 million in 2014.

Keep an eye on the trajectory. EMarketer thinks Facebook will hit $387 million in mobile revenue in 2013. If that looks on track toward the end of the year or the beginning of next, get aggressive. This thing will leave its IPO offering price in the dust in a Silicon Valley minute.

For now, I'm just biding my time, writing weekly covered calls against my Facebook position. I'm a fan of spectacles. I'll won't just watch this one play out, I'll profit from it.

At the time of publication, the author was long FB and P.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.

Rocco Pendola is a private investor with nearly 20 years experience in various forms of media, ranging from radio to print. His work has appeared in academic journals as well as dozens of online and offline publications. He uses his broad experience to help inform his coverage of the stock market, primarily in the technology, Internet and new media spaces. He has taken a long-term approach to investing, focusing on dividend-paying stocks, since he opened his first account as a teenager. Pendola, 37, is based in Santa Monica, Calif., where he lives with his wife and child.

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