NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- I need to clear up some confusion.Why Twitter Will Live and Facebook Will Die will go down as one of my most well-received articles of all time. Between it's original publication at TheStreet and rebroadcasts at CNBC and Forbes, it has been shared thousands of times across social networks. Initially, the response surprised me. But then, I thought about why an article arguing that Twitter will outlast Facebook ( FB) would resonate so strongly with so many people. I came to three primary conclusions:
Facebook HateA general hatred towards Facebook exists in the public opinion marketplace. The media deserves credit for this. Prior to the IPO, news outlets ran with the fluff storyline: The Facebook IPO will turn millions of the social network's users into investors. As it did leading up to the housing crash, the media failed to critically assess the situation. Most reports on the IPO implied Facebook could do nothing but go up. Outside of CNBC and several financial and tech websites, I don't think any mainstream outlet reported the obvious warning signs, such as risks in the S-1 or the inevitability of insider selling. When the Facebook story did not play as scripted, the media turned on its revenge reflex. Facebook became the object of intense scorn. Looking back, it's only natural that thousands would rally around any association between Facebook and death.
I Nailed ItI will write a separate article on this. It deserves one. But, in a nutshell, I nailed an emerging, if obvious trend. Twitter is truly becoming the modern-day version of the newspaper for an exponentially growing number of people.
The Notion of Long-TermWe all have different conceptions of time. Long-term might mean a few months to one person, a few years to the next and a couple of decades to another. Personally, I use all three classifications. It depends on the circumstances. In most of the articles I write, particularly ones that focus on buying and selling stocks, I define long-term as a few years. When I attempt to envision the future, I usually categorize long-term as longer than that. In a discussion of longevity vis-a-vis Twitter and Facebook, we're talking something closer to 10 or 20 years.
Make no mistake, I am bullish on FB. I disclosed a long position in the stock in the aforementioned article. And I have a record of defending the company post-IPO. I added to my position alongside Netflix ( NFLX) CEO Reed Hastings. I have no intention of selling. Thinking long-term, like the newspaper, Twitter will become an institution that spans generations. Facebook will die when too few people use, engage and care about it. Put another way, Twitter will stand the test of time. Facebook, ultimately, will not. Which company would I rather be invested in 20 years from now? Investing in Bruce Springsteen in the early 1970s would have been akin to initiating a long position in McDonald's ( MCD) around the same time. Jon Landau saw the future of rock-n-roll in 1974 (it's name was Bruce Springsteen); the MCD long guessed right on the ubiquitous nature and staying power of fast food. I expect Facebook, along with Twitter, Pandora ( P) and a handful of others, to dominate the mobile-advertising landscape this decade. They're all worthy of a long play for the foreseeable future. That said, Facebook is not the future of social media. It, along with LinkedIn ( LNKD), pioneered the craft, but, thanks largely to its utilitarian nature, entertainment value and clean platform, Twitter will outlive and dictate the trajectory of the space. Follow @RoccoPendola At the time of publication, the author was long FB and P. This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.