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As Goes Europe ...

Posted at 8:22 a.m. EDT on Friday, Aug. 17

Are you sitting down? If you invested your euros in the Italian stock market index, the year that Italy is supposed to file bankruptcy, you are now up on your investment. That's right. You are profitable.

Spain? Look out. That market rallied another 1.85% today on top of Thursday's 4% gain.

These are some of the biggest moves I have ever seen. They are emblematic of small-cap stock short squeezes, not bourses of major nations, including one with the third-largest bond market on Earth, Italy.

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When we look back at this remarkable rally in our nation, we will see a few things that will shake us, including those of us who talk and write about the stock market for a living.

First, we had been told endlessly that we couldn't really rally with QE3. Or we hear that this rally is based on QE3. Or we hear that the market only goes up on the Fed. Go check the minutes. That's just not true. The people who opine on these matters won't acknowledge this, I believe, but the Fed wasn't part of this and no tip to the media, no speech, or no wink and nod had anything to do with it.

Two, the fiscal cliff chatter? It did a terrific job of making everyone sell. I don't know whether it will be resolved or not, but I do know that if you came in now, you missed a fabulous rally. Again, just a fact.

Three, there was no real change in claims or any other data that signaled this rally. Nothing. Not one piece was really all that good except some homes data, and most people still don't believe that prices for homes have stopped going down. Either way, we are still building very few homes, so the turn is off a small base.

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