Jim Cramer's Best Blogs

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- Jim Cramer fills his blog on RealMoney every day with his up-to-the-minute reactions to what's happening in the market and his legendary ahead-of-the-crowd ideas. This week he blogged on:
  • good news from Europe;
  • Cisco the comeback kid; and
  • the accelerating transport stocks.

Click here for information on RealMoney, where you can see all the blogs, including Jim Cramer's -- and reader comments -- in real time.


As Goes Europe ...

Posted at 8:22 a.m. EDT on Friday, Aug. 17

Are you sitting down? If you invested your euros in the Italian stock market index, the year that Italy is supposed to file bankruptcy, you are now up on your investment. That's right. You are profitable.

Spain? Look out. That market rallied another 1.85% today on top of Thursday's 4% gain.

These are some of the biggest moves I have ever seen. They are emblematic of small-cap stock short squeezes, not bourses of major nations, including one with the third-largest bond market on Earth, Italy.

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When we look back at this remarkable rally in our nation, we will see a few things that will shake us, including those of us who talk and write about the stock market for a living.

First, we had been told endlessly that we couldn't really rally with QE3. Or we hear that this rally is based on QE3. Or we hear that the market only goes up on the Fed. Go check the minutes. That's just not true. The people who opine on these matters won't acknowledge this, I believe, but the Fed wasn't part of this and no tip to the media, no speech, or no wink and nod had anything to do with it.

Two, the fiscal cliff chatter? It did a terrific job of making everyone sell. I don't know whether it will be resolved or not, but I do know that if you came in now, you missed a fabulous rally. Again, just a fact.

Three, there was no real change in claims or any other data that signaled this rally. Nothing. Not one piece was really all that good except some homes data, and most people still don't believe that prices for homes have stopped going down. Either way, we are still building very few homes, so the turn is off a small base.

No, what happened is that Germany relented. Germany held the whole world hostage for months. They held it hostage because they were fighting Weimar when they were really fighting the deflation that gripped the world from the Depression.

They were selfish fools. They were stupid. And the only thing that should give you pause about this rally is that they are fickle and they could change their minds.

This is a rally based on the Europeans' ability to deal with their problems, not solve them. Many big money investors didn't even think the Europeans were capable of dealing with their problems, let alone willing to do so.

It looks like they are. That's the spark. It doesn't mean they will succeed, but it does mean they can try, and that's actually reassuring from where we were a couple of months ago. Enough doubts have been resolved that they are not suicidal, that they will address the problems, that people are buying.

In other words, our rally is based on the European stock rally, which signals the worst is over.

In our country, the rotators have left the defensives and piled into the techs and the industrials as long as they don't have too much China, which is still in the not-able-to-deal-with-problems cloud.

There are still tons of values in this phase. Retail may have run too much for now, but anything connected with housing, autos, aerospace, (non-fiscal cliff) oil, tech, chemical, wood or exports is going to get money from the bond market -- the bond market being the great repository of money that thought the Europeans wouldn't get it together and another Lehman would ensue, except, as the bears always told us, it would be 10 times worse than Lehman.

So, you can listen all day to those who make a cottage industry about Ben Bernanke or employment or Washington, in general.

The big multiple compression and the big earnings shortfalls, though, were caused by the European economies.

And their stock markets tell you that better -- not happy, but better -- days will soon be here again.


Taking Share and Taking Names

Posted at 12:14 p.m. EDT on Thursday, Aug. 16

No one's been a bigger critic of John Chambers and Cisco ( CSCO) of late.

The networking giant seemed to have been bloated, without direction, blowing with the breeze of macro events. The company had promised a juicy dividend and then gave you a paltry one. We had to hear endlessly why the company wasn't living up to expectations created by the company itself on the previous call. The company seemed to have lost its way entirely, to the point when you read the release and if it was positive, you had to bang out of the stock immediately because you knew that Chambers would somehow talk you out of buying the stock by saying he had a muted outlook, or that customers weren't buying or that the prospects weren't as strong as he thought because of global woes.

Meanwhile, the company would have bought a ton of stock back at very high prices and you would think, what the heck's going on here?

And that's why yesterday's quarterly report and conference call were so refreshing. First, the outlook wasn't muted, it was terrific. Second, even though Europe is a big part of Cisco's business, almost 20%, it didn't hurt them nearly as much as it has hurt other international tech companies. No complaints, no alibis. Third, Asia was fabulous. While other companies cite the post-Japan earthquake as still hurting orders or note that China's killing them with the sudden slowdown, Cisco performed fabulously in both markets.

Meanwhile, telecom spending in this country, which everyone says is way down, doesn't seem down for Cisco. Neither does cable, where Cisco earned the bragging rights to crow about its seamless Web integration of the Olympics, with staggering numbers of viewers. Hmm ... telcos and cables just now turning in the juice. That could be good for ages of orders.

That's why I think Cisco made the astounding decision to boost its dividend by 75% immediately taking the stock to a 3% yield. That's remarkable, it's incredible and its fantastic news for long-suffering shareholders plus new ones who are now drawn to the stock. A dividend boost of this magnitude says that Cisco's confident of the future because a dividend, unlike a buyback, can't be easily suspended or cut back.

Plus, the commentary was so darned bullish about the future that you couldn't help but be excited.

Sure there are naysayers telling you that because they gave you this big a dividend it's no longer a growth stock. Others groused about the low-single-digit revenue growth. But to me, we have the old Cisco, taking share and taking names and ready to roar back when global growth returns because you can't master big Internet data without this company.

It's ironic. Not that long ago, when Cisco said it was going to give you a good yield, I joked that given its paltry dividend, it could give you a good yield alright, because the stock was headed lower. Next stop 2%, I said at the time.

Now I think next stop 2%, again, except this time it's because I think the stock's going to climb, shrinking that yield in the best way possible. Welcome back Cisco. Terrific work in the toughest environment imaginable.

Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust, has no positions in the stocks mentioned.


Transports Get It Going

Posted at 3:20 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, Aug. 15

Transports break out! It's happening, and is it ever necessary.

I have been questioning the transports' ability to confirm the rally of late because so many are tied to coal, which is in secular decline because of the secular rise of natural gas (not the price, but the use), coupled with an EPA that has decided to get rid of coal as a fuel.

But I haven't stopped thinking about the need to get either UPS ( UPS) or FedEx ( FDX) moving because there is nothing more important to the index than these two companies.

Sure, I think Union Pacific ( UNP), the best-acting rail, is a terrific barometer because it has less coal and more China traffic. That said, it does have a lot of repricing that has given it better margins.

The airlines? They have so many intrinsic issues of execution and demand and fuel that they have become an awful tell.

Trucking? I think UPS and FDX are the truckers that have the ability to ship worldwide. But they have been stalled, big time, ever since their quarters. They had been confirming the pathetic Baltic Freight numbers and the hideous Suezmax oil tank day rates. Until today. Today, on the strength of a slim research call that FDX will benefit from a fleet changeover, the stock is roaring. It's igniting a long-needed rally.

I think that we get a couple of up days for the transports and we are going to be talking about a phony rally that might not be as phony as the graybeards -- all of whom swear by the transports -- swear it is.

Watch FDX. Watch UPS. They could be the key to the next leg of the transport rally, which could then be the backbone of the next leg of the entire rally as the canvas unfolds.

Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust, has no positions in the stocks mentioned.