NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- If you're an Elan (ELN), Pfizer (PFE) or Johnson& Johnson (JNJ) investor, Monday's disappointing drug test result is always in the back of your mind but hopes are raised at the Phase 3 stage.
ELN data by YCharts
LLY data by YCharts Bargain hunters and short-sellers covering positions could push the price up about 50% to 60% in relation to the gap-down price. Looking at the chart, I expect short-term resistance for Elan near $12.75, Pfizer at $24, Johnson& Johnson at $68.50. Round numbers often attract like a price magnet and repel, causing a bounce. Expect a lot of Elan volume to trade near $11.50 a share Tuesday, but also be prepared for a closing under the opening price, and more than a 25% chance of a close under $11.50.
PFE data by YCharts If you are scrutinizing today's drop to signal a buying opportunity, you are likely going to find the end of the day Wednesday or Thursday better than Tuesday. There is no hurry buying the dip with ELN. Stocks dumping as a result of failed tests usually take a full month or two to recover, and only if no other disappointments are announced in the meantime. Take your time and do your homework before allocating capital here. Look for the second break above $12.75 as the one that "sticks."
JNJ data by YCharts Johnson & Johnson is so large and diverse that this speed bump will not likely stick in the memories of investors for long. Pfizer may take a breather from the rocket ride higher, but I expect bargain hunters to jump on board near $22.65 and lower, if it even makes it down that far. What's the best play with these stocks? There should be a very attractive trade coming up Wednesday and or Thursday. Near the end of the day, if still trading lower, sell out of the money puts. Fear of continued losses tends to push portfolio insurance prices up dramatically, while at the same time, the stock should bottom. It's not one to get greedy with. Hold on for a few days and as the implied volatility falls (hopefully with a nice dead cat bounce) exit out with a quick hit and run for profits. Otherwise, for longer-term investors, the best play is to wait until we are closer to the next earnings release for an entry. At the time of publication the author did not hold a position in any stock mentioned. This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.
