Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR). Green Mountain Coffee Roasters engages in the production and marketing of award-winning coffees, innovative brewing technology and trades an average of 5.4 million shares per day with a market cap of $3.3 billion. Green Mountain fell off a cliff on Friday after analyst Stifel Nicolaus cut Green Mountain's fiscal 2013 earnings estimate from $2.27 to $1.80 a share. The mean 2012 fiscal year estimate is $2.37 per share, resulting in a forward price-to-earnings multiple of nine. Stifel analyst Mark Astrachan also estimated further declines in profit for Green Mountain. TheStreet's Gregg Greenberg nailed it with GMCR about three weeks ago in
The Five Dumbest Things on Wall Street This Week: June 15. If you are not following Gregg Greenberg, now you know why you need to. Analyst Astrachan estimates $1.64 for Green Mountain earnings during fiscal year 2014. Sales and profit for Green Mountain's K-Cups (single-serve cups for its Keurig coffee makers) is experiencing fierce competition and tightening of margins resulting from stepped up marketing efforts. Shareholders have not been rewarded for their patience. Shares have fallen 76% in the last year, and the average analyst target price for GMCR is $45.67. TheStreet'sBret Jensen called GMCR a short more than a month ago in Even the Losers. On one hand, the company has rising revenue year-over-year of $1.36 billion last fiscal year compared to $803.04 million in the previous year. Also in favor of the company is the bottom line. Green Mountain has rising earnings year-over-year of $79.50 million last fiscal year compared to $54.43 million in the previous year. On the other hand, the share price is clearly transitioning from the upper left of the chart to the bottom right. The moving averages are all downward trending and are above the price. The chart simply doesn't get much more bearish than it is. Although, Green Mountain has sold off so quickly, it's also now technically oversold slightly (not enough for me to gain an interest in fading the downward pressure). Short-sellers have climbed this mountain in a big way. Over 17 percent of Green Mountain's float is short. Betting against short-sellers is generally a losing proposition, and Green Mountain demonstrates why. If you're considering taking a sip of Green Mountain stock, perhaps let the shares come in more so you don't get burned. Green Mountain is one hot cup of Joe right now. At the time of publication the author was long Bridgepoint via short July $10 put options entered on July 13. This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.