For the same fiscal period year-over-year, revenue has declined to $86.60 billion last fiscal year compared to $91.10 billion in the previous year. The bottom line has rising earnings year-over-year of $10.60 billion last fiscal year compared to $-1.61 billion in the previous year. In the previous Citi's earnings release on April 16, the closing price before earnings was $33.41. The one-day price drop was 59 cents for a 1.77% change. Citi has lost about 22.5% of its value since the last earnings after beating estimates by nearly 10%. Citi beat earnings in three of the last four quarters, with one miss for -0.12 cents (-24%) a share. Peers for Citi include (in order of their earnings release date): J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM) reports before the market open on Friday. The consensus estimate is currently 80 cents a share. The mean fiscal-year estimate price-to-earnings ratio is 7.98, based on earnings of $4.29 a share this year. Wells Fargo (WFC) also reports before the bell on Friday. The consensus estimate is currently 81 cents a share. The mean fiscal-year estimate price-to-earnings ratio is 10.05, based on earnings of $3.28 a share this year. J.P. Morgan and Wells Fargo should provide an idea of what to expect from Citi, at least in terms of the overall market. Both banks have a higher price-to-earnings multiple compared to Citi. However, Citi's declining price is entering into over extended territory. Bank of America (BAC) reports before the bell next Wednesday. The consensus estimate is currently 15 cents a share. The estimate price-to-earnings ratio is 13.47, based on earnings of 56 cents a share this year. U.S. Bancorp (USB) reports before the opening bell on July 18, 2012. The consensus estimate is currently 69 cents a share. The mean fiscal-year estimate price-to-earnings ratio is 11.6, based on earnings of $2.75 a share this year. Morgan Stanley (MS) reports before the opening bell next Thursday. The consensus estimate is currently 45 cents a share. The mean fiscal-year estimate price-to-earnings ratio is 10.37, based on earnings of $1.32 a share this year.
Investors will have the most amount of information moving into earnings for Bank of America and Morgan Stanley. No surprises from an industry perspective, but each reporting of the other banks will influence their stock price.
Morgan Stanley is the best bet from a valuation comparison based on the cost to buy value. Citi comes in a close second. I expect J.P. Morgan's earnings release to have the biggest impact on Citi and the other big banks. The latest problem for banks including Citi, Bank Of America, UBS AG ( UBS), Barclay's ( BCS), J.P. Morgan, and others is the Libor rate-setting scandal. These banks submitted bids and may be under investigation as a result. The good news for investors is so many appear to have their hands in the cookie jar that it is unlikely any punishment will cause too much pain. Beyond political gamesmanship I don't expect too much to come out of this. No material changes in Citi's earnings ability anyway. Slow economies worldwide will hold back profits at least through 2012, although a pickup in lending for sales in the last quarter of 2012 (to beat the capital gains tax increases) may help. At the time of publication the author had no holdings in any of the stocks mentioned. This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.