Big Tech Companies' Earnings: It's Do or Die

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- Big companies start reporting earnings next week, the least of which are tech firms, whose fortunes could revive the moribund equity markets.

Infosys Ltd. (ADR) (INFY)

Infosys designs technology-enabled business services. The company was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Bangalore, India. Infosys trades an average of 2 million shares per day and has a market cap of $26.4 billion.

Infosys is expected to report good first-quarter earnings after the market closes on July 11. The consensus estimate is currently 73 cents a share, an improvement of 6 cents (8.2%) from 67 cents during the same period last year.

Analyst opinion is mixed. Most don't think a "buy" or "sell" is warranted. Right now, INFY has one "buy" recommendation out of 17 analysts covering the company, 15 "holds," and one "sell." Shareholders have not been rewarded for their patience, as the stock has fallen 30.7% in the past year. The average analyst target price for INFY is $50.73.

The trailing 12-month price-to-earnings ratio is 15.4, and the mean fiscal year estimate price-to-earnings ratio is 14.94, based on earnings of $3.08 per share this year. Investors are receiving 65 cents in dividends for a yield of 1.42%.

The stock has risen 2.45% in the past month, but has still fallen 21% since the latest earnings release April 13. (On that day, the stock plunged 13.5%.) It's not far off the 52-week low of $42.10 a share.

For the same fiscal period year-over-year, Infosys revenue has improved to $6.04 billion compared with $4.80 billion. Earnings rose year-over-year to $1.50 billion from $1.31 billion.

What's key for investors is the drop in the rupee. The Indian currency is near an all-time low against the dollar. A global economic slowdown has created headwinds for India, much of whose success is based on foreign investment. It's a mistake to believe that the relative calm America has enjoyed is enough to propel growth.

Weinstein Estimate: Earnings positive relative to mean estimate, but non inspiring guidance keeps shares from regaining losses.

OCZ Technology Group Inc. (OCZ)

OCZ makes solid state drives (SSDs) and computer components. OCZ trades an average of 1.9 million shares per day, and has a market cap of $422 million.

OCZ is expected to report dismal first-quarter earnings after the market closes July 10. The consensus estimate is a loss of 13 cents a share versus break-even a year earlier.

Analysts like this company. Currently, OCZ has seven "buy" recommendations out of eight analysts covering the company, and one "hold." The stock has plunged 24.8% in the past year, and the average analyst target price for OCZ is $13.43.

The mean fiscal year estimate price-to-earnings ratio is 21.44, based on earnings of 29 cents per share this year. In the past month, the stock has rocketed 40%.

OCZ's previous earnings release was May 1, and the closing price was $5.99. Shares opened higher and went into a free fall, closing near the lows of the day after taking a 14% loss. Shares have fully recovered and now trade 3% higher.

Year-over-year revenue is one of the few bright spots. Revenue reported was $190.12 million last fiscal year compared to $143.96 million. The bottom line has falling earnings year-over-year with a loss of $30.02 million last fiscal year compared to a relatively smaller loss of $13.53 million in the previous year.

52-week range: $4.17-$10.6; price-to-book: 1.67; float short: 37.77%.

Google Inc. (GOOG)

Google is the world's biggest Internet search provider. It trades an average of 1.8 million shares per day, and has a market value of $191.6 billion.

Google is expected to post strong second-quarter earnings after the market closes on July 12. The consensus estimate is currently $8.78 a share, an improvement of $1.12 (12.8%) from $7.66 during the same period last year.

A total of 29 of 31 analysts give Google a "buy" recommendation. The other two are "holds." The stock has appreciated 9.8% in the past year, and the average analyst target price is $746.88.

Weinstein Estimate :Earnings positive relative to mean estimate, strong guidance and continued dominance in the spaces Google occupies. I am very bullish long term with Google and other than management's mistake in leaving China, it is executing very well. Google is the only company that is seriously keeping Apple executives up at night.

Keep a close eye on mobile. Google's report may shed light on what to expect from Facebook. Also, look for negative comments based on expected impacts with Apple and mapping.

The trailing 12-month price-to-earnings ratio is 17.8, the mean fiscal year estimate price-to-earnings ratio is 15.68, based on earnings of $37.48 per share this year.

Google continues to fill the war chest with an increase of year-over-year revenue. Revenue reported was $29.32 billion last fiscal year compared to $23.65 billion. Profit was $8.51 billion last fiscal year, up from $6.52 billion.

In the previous Google earnings release April 12, the closing price before earnings was $651.01. After earnings, Google closed the next day down $26.40 (-4%) to $624.60. Shares have fallen more since to trade near $595. This is a drop of 8.5%, but at least above recent lows near $560.

Disclosure: The author holds no positions in the stocks mentioned.