Jive Software

My final breakout trade idea for today is Jive Software ( JIVE), whose social business software platform can be provided as a public cloud service or as a private cloud solution. This stock is off to a bullish start in 2012, with shares up over 30% so far.

If you look at the chart for Jive Software, you'll see that this stock formed a double top back in April near $28 to $28.15 a share. After topping out, shares of Jive Software started to downtrend hard with the stock consistently making lower highs and lower lows, which is bearish technical price action. That move sent JIVE to its recent low of $14.26 a share. After hitting that low, shares of JIVE have rebounded sharply and hit a recent high of 21.97 a share. During that rebound, shares of JIVE have reversed its trend and started to make higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish action. That move has now pushed JIVE within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade.

Traders should now look for long-biased traders in JIVE if it can manage to trigger a breakout above some near-term overhead resistance at $21.97 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above $21.97 with volume that hits near or above its three-month average action of 703,969 shares. If we get that move soon, then JIVE should continue to spike higher towards its next significant overhead resistance level at $24.25 a share, or possibly even back to its double top zone near $28 a share.

One could look to buy JIVE off weakness and anticipate the breakout with a stop around its 50-day moving average of $19.43 a share. You could also get long off strength once it takes out $21.97 a share with high-volume, and simply use a stop near today's low of $20.89 a share. Either way, I would suggest looking for long trades as long as JIVE is trending above $21.97 with strong upside volume flows. At last check, JIVE has hit an intraday high of $21.90 and volume is low at 190,000 shares traded.

This stock is a favorite name of the short-sellers. The current short interest as a percentage of the float for JIVE is an extremely high 37.8%. If that breakout triggers soon, then JIVE could easily experienced a monster short-squeeze, so keep this name on watch.

To see more breakout candidates, check out the Breakout Stocks of the Week portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Winderemere, Fla.


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At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Roberto Pedone, based out of Windermere, Fla., is an independent trader who focuses on stocks, options, futures, commodities and currencies. He is also an outside contributor to Beconequity.com and maintains the website Maddmoney.net, which he sold to Blue Wave Advisors in 2008. Roberto studied International Business at The Milwaukee School of Engineering, and he spent a year overseas studying business in Lubeck, Germany.

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