NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- I'm going to let you in on a little secret: I'm not as smart as you think I am.Now as hard as that may be for you to accept, imagine the disappointment I'm feeling at this moment with myself after just now figuring this out. In a span of three days, I was both one of the smartest men alive, and one of the dumbest. Am I just being too hard on myself or will time eventually restore my intellect?
My Job and My InsecuritiesLast Tuesday, I announced selling my position in social media giant Facebook ( FB) at a price of $31.20. So what, you might say. However to me, it was a brilliant move highlighted by the fact that I had perfectly timed the bottom after having bought the stock at a price of $25.72 -- resulting in a 22% gain. However, on Friday, the stock closed above $33 yet with no meaningful signs of slowing down. You see where this is going. On one hand, I think I'm being too hard on myself because a 22% gain in just 10 days is nothing to take lightly. However, missing the top and leaving an extra 7% on the table has a way of introducing doubt to one's own analysis. Am I caring too much about being right and not enough about being wise? For me, the situation has (somewhat) conflicting interests and I'm not sure on which I should focus more of my energy. I am both a writer and an investor -- in essence requiring two separate standards on which to be judged. You, on the other hand, get the benefit of both without having to really distinguish which standard you are judging me on. Though I think that's unfair -- I accept it. You see, I am in constant need to excel at both, even though I realize that to do both perfectly is impossible. In fact, this split focus could impair my rate of success at either one. Maybe I'm being a bit too insecure -- but that's my problem.
Does the Substance Ever Stick?As with Facebook, I write extensively about both Apple ( AAPL) and Sirius XM ( SIRI) to the extent that I consider myself an expert on both companies.
As for Apple, my recent prediction that it is about to dominate the automobile was not at all appreciated by some readers -- particularly those who are investors of Sirius XM as well as Pandora ( P). When Apple announced that it was ditching Google ( GOOG) in favor of its own in-house mapping system, I took it a step further and realized that Apple was now communicating directly with commuters. Essentially, it has gotten into the driver's seat. I said this because first, it doesn't take a genius to see that the IP platform is dominant now as it currently connects every mobile device such as smartphones, tablets, video games systems and even your television. Yet it is only starting to grow, as vehicles are now being manufactured with their own IP addresses already built in. So with Apple having already designed its "mobile OS" for the upcoming release of its iPhone 5 -- where it has also integrated Facebook -- it makes sense that it might become the navigator of the automobile (along with its Siri voice control system). Automobile integration also looks likely to be the future driver of the company's growth and stock price. In other words, when the smartphone market ends, the introduction of the "smartcar" market begins. That seems to be the trend and the logical next step -- at least according to my analysis. I was right about Sirius shares. For Apple's dominance perhaps I'm going out on a limb. Some would say in both cases I'm merely throwing the topics to the wall to see if they stick. Be that as it may, my job as an analyst and writer is to be right. Hopefully in the process I'll appear smart if I've helped readers make decisions that they otherwise likely might not have made or consider possible outcomes that might have gone ignored.