Gold, Oil in Sync to Rally Now and Sink Later

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- In my writings about gold I began to warn about a potential "Death Cross" back in April. On April 16, the 50-day simple moving average moved below the 200-day simple moving average, confirming that feared negative technical signal. This ended the bull market for gold that began with a "Golden Cross" on Feb. 11, 2009. The 50-day had been above the 200-day since that date.

My near-term forecast for gold called for weakness to my annual pivot at $1,575.8. In May, I had a monthly value level right at $1,525.8 the Troy ounce. I did not expect gold to fall as hard or fast as it did in May, so when my annual pivot at $1,575.8 failed to hold on May 14, I decided to take a look at the monthly chart. From this analysis I noted that the base of the busted "Gold Bubble" was the $1,535 to $1,525 price range.

On May 16 I wrote, " It's Time to Buy Gold for a Trade" at the $1,535 to $1,525 trading range. Today, I will give you an update on the risk / reward for gold for the remainder of the year.

Chart Courtesy of Thomson/Reuters

The Daily Chart for Comex Gold Futures: The $1,535 to $1,525 "buy zone" was tested three times in the second half of May, on the 16th, 23rd, and 30th. The first upside target was my annual pivot at $1,575.80, which had an 85% chance of being tested again on a rebound. With gold now well above $1,575.80 the next target was my zone of semiannual pivots at $1,635.80 and $1,659.40, with that range being tested Wednesday morning.

Gold is between the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages at $1,621.70 and $1,685.20. With the monthly chart for gold negative, gold is more likely to trade down to my annual value level at $1,388.40 in the second half of 2012, not back toward the bubble high at $1,923.7 set in September 2011.

In my writings about crude oil I have noted the negative divergences on the weekly chart at the end of March with oil just above $103 per barrel. From the beginning of the year I talked about my annual and semiannual pivots at $103.58 and $104.84 saying that strength above that range would be difficult to sustain.

Fundamentally crude oil has been trading in a tug of war between Wall Street speculation to the upside and weaker-than-expected economic growth to the downside. The economic data has been winning the war since the end of March, but key levels held on Monday.

Chart Courtesy of Thomson/Reuters

The Weekly Chart for Nymex Crude Oil Futures: Note the importance of the 200-week simple moving average for crude oil. In January 2008 crude oil declined to a test of its 200-week simple moving average. From there the crude "Oil Bubble" began to inflate. The "Oil Bubble" peaked at $147.27 in mid-July 2008, and economic weakness was a major factor in the breaking of this bubble.

Crude oil declined to $33.20 into mid-January 2009. Since mid-2009 the 200-week SMA average has been a magnet for crude oil. For the current decline, weakness into this week held the 200-week at $81.01 with Monday's low at $81.24. The upside this week is to my weekly risky level at $86.55. On renewed commodity speculation the upside is back to my annual risky level at $103.58. Any additional weakness in June should be limited to my semiannual value level at $79.83 with the October 4th low at $74.95. On a sustained downtrend below the 200-week SMA, the downside in the second half of 2012 is back towards the January 2009 low at $33.20.

In conclusion, there are near-term trading opportunities in gold and crude oil in anticipation of QE3. Longer term a weaker global economy should result in significant downside risks if gold breaks below $1,525 and oil breaks below $74.95.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.