NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Yesterday on TheStreet, I provided color on news that Triton Digital will measure Pandora (P) listening at both the local and national level. These ratings cover the country's largest radio markets and, for all intents and purposes, equate to the numbers Arbitron publishes to gauge terrestrial radio listening.In yesterday's article, I was the first to compare Pandora's results in a major local market, Dallas-Fort Worth, to that of terrestrial radio stations in the metro. Today, I look at the nation's second-largest market, Los Angeles, where Pandora puts up an even stronger performance than it did in DFW. Refer to Wednesday's piece for ratings-related definitions/methodology and a link to fair use guidelines of Arbitron's proprietary data.
At the same time, Pandora continues to increase its share of all radio listening and controls the market for Internet radio listening by a wide margin. And, as I explained earlier this week on TheStreet, the company is ideally situated to capitalize on the rapidly growing mobile advertising space. At day's end, Pandora only needs to take a relatively small amount of advertising away from terrestrial radio to deliver formidable revenue. In 2011, radio stations across the United States collected $17.4 billion from advertisers. One percent of that number equals $174 million. Of course, 1 percent is an incredibly conservative estimate. Plus, any numbers derived from the $17.4 billion statistic only take into account advertising revenue Pandora takes from terrestrial radio coffers. Five percent brings that number up to $870 million. According to Yahoo! Finance, analyst revenue estimates range from $543 and $685.8 million for the Pandora's next fiscal year (2014). For the current fiscal year (2013), analysts covering the company expect anywhere between $399.4 and $432.6 million in sales. Pandora reports next Wednesday. Because the company would have to knock the snot out of the quarter to maintain the incredible momentum of the last week and month, I am not expecting much more upside. I do anticipate continued revenue growth, including in the important mobile arena. As Pandora continues to gain traction with local and national advertisers (and these buyers migrate some of their money to mobile), we'll start seeing the numbers that will trigger the long-term stock price appreciation I have been talking about.