The San Francisco Fed does indeed note that economic growth is likely to be weaker than what we'd have expected from historical experience. The researchers conclude, "Consequently, economic forecasts should take into account the effects of the recent financial crisis. Compared with the average U.S. post-World War II recession, the forecast for real GDP should be lowered 0.6-0.8 percentage point in 2012, 0.5-0.7 percentage point in 2013, finally returning almost to normal by 2014. Similarly, inflation forecasts should be revised down between two-thirds and a full percentage point over the next three years." There you have it.