The following commentary comes from an independent investor or market observer as part of TheStreet's guest contributor program, which is separate from the company's news coverage.NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- Everything changes after a $90 selloff. Apple ( AAPL) hit $556 on Monday morning and all of a sudden it looks like the 50/50 odds of iPhone weakness is already priced in. Two weeks ago, we figured the stock would rise $100 if Apple beat iPhone estimates and it would drop $100 if it missed. Investors, including us, have given the majority of their attention to the negative 50% odds, but what about the positive 50%? We know that Verizon iPhone sales declined by 1 million units from the holiday quarter and we will find out what happened at AT&T ( T) when it releases results on Tuesday morning. Verizon and AT&T are both important pieces to the puzzle but 63% of iPhone activations occurred outside of the U.S. last quarter.