The following commentary comes from an independent investor or market observer as part of TheStreet's guest contributor program, which is separate from the company's news coverage.NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- If something can go wrong, it probably will. This may not be the healthiest way to approach life, but it has often been my investment approach in what I consider broadly irrational bull markets. Warren Buffett said it another way by suggesting that we "be fearful when others are greedy."
Sirius XM ( SIRI): I will be eager to see how Sirius XM trades in the coming week as investors prepare for it to report first-quarter earnings at the beginning of May. The stock has had a long track record of running up into earnings, but my suspicions tell me that this time will be different. After having learned the company's CEO just sold 11 million shares at an average price of $2.20 a share, I wonder whether investors will want to bid up the stock ahead of the earnings report. One thing is now certain: There will be no preannouncement as many had hoped. But the question still remains whether the company will raise its subscriber guidance. At its fourth-quarter and full-year 2011 announcement, Sirius said it expected churn to increase slightly, by 0.2%, and that there was a "modest" response from subscribers regarding its recent base price increase. From that standpoint, I am expecting the subscriber numbers not to be as robust as investors are anticipating, even though Sirius said in February it planned to add 1.3 million subscribers in 2012, a figure widely regarded as low. I think that if the company can report an increase of 420,000 to 460,000 for the first quarter, that would put it ahead of its expected full-year pace. But I don't think such a number would justify increasing guidance. I expect shares to drop on the earnings news to less than $2.10 and possibly even to the $2.00 area, unless the company reveals something dynamic regarding its CPO program and or related partnerships with the used-car dealers. As I have said recently, I would be a seller of the stock ahead of the announcement as the likelihood of any positive news surrounding the used-car partnerships is slim.