The following commentary comes from an independent investor or market observer as part of TheStreet's guest contributor program, which is separate from the company's news coverage.NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- Investors of satellite radio giant Sirius XM ( SIRI) woke up this morning to news that the company's CEO,
Sirius investors continue to remain positive in spite of all of the negativity surrounding insider sells, Liberty acquisition rumor, suspected subscriber losses and also the all-important, will it raise guidance? I think investors deserve a considerable amount of respect not only for their patience but for their faith throughout all of the noise. However, it is clear that many are waiting for many answers -- either confirmations or denials to many of these questions. My gut tells me that investors are unlikely to get anything revealed outside of the company's standard operating metrics. Many still forget that Sirius has had a business to run throughout all of this and yet has much to prove. Although it only projected to 1.3 million subs for 2012, in the upcoming first quarter report, the company will want to demonstrate that it did indeed lowball guidance and the initial number was not the lack of confidence that it was perceived to be. I think if it can report 420 to 460 thousand for first quarter, it would put the company ahead of its pace for its full-year projections. However, I don't believe that this number would not be enough to justify raising guidance because churn of 2.1% is expected to play a major role in its performance. That said, the more important metrics will be to see how it is doing in its rate of conversion. This number typically arrives at the 44% range but I'm curious to see what effect (if any) its price increase has had on its ability to lock in subscribers upon the expiration of the promotional trial period. From a revenue standpoint, the price increase will help offset subscriber losses to some degree as Sirius expects growth in that area for the year to arrive at 10% to $3.3 billion. From an investment perspective, it is hard to be bullish on the shares knowing that the CEO has 49 million shares left that he can unload at any time. When you couple this with the fact that the stock typically sells off after earnings, it is hard to make a case for adding at current levels. If you are long at the moment and your holding period is through this year, I would wait until after the call to add to your position if your risk tolerance is high. However, if you are in the money at the moment, I would sell ahead of the announcement and wait for the pullback to re-enter a position at the $2.10 range. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned, although positions may change at any time.