British Pound Unlikely To Find Clear Bearing In BOE Minutes, Jobs Data

By Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist

Talking Points
  • Bank of England Minutes Unlikely to Signal Change in Policy Framework
  • British Pound May See Muted Reaction to Increase in UK Jobless Claims
  • Yen Sold as Asian Stocks Rise After IMF Upgrades 2012 Growth Outlook

Minutes from April’s Bank ofEngland policy meeting headline the economic calendarin European hours. Traders will look to the voting pattern on therate-setting MPC committee to gauge the possibility of additionalstimulus in the near term. Two votes in favor of further easingfrom known doves David Miles and Adam Posen represent the statusquo, with anything more perceived as a shift in favor of furtheraccommodation that is likely to weigh on the British Pound . Alternatively, an 8-1 or 9-0 outcome willprobably prove supportive.

On balance, we suspect another 7-2 outcomecoupled with neutral rhetoric is the path of least resistance, withmost BOE officials waiting for February’s increase in assetpurchases to be fully absorbed and an updated quarterly inflationreport to be produced in May. Jobless Claims figures are also on tap, with expectationscalling for a 6,000 increase in applications for benefits in March.A print in line with expectations doesn’t present a materialchange in overall labor market trends and so may not produce ameaningful response from price action.

The Japanese Yen slumped overnight – sliding as much as0.7 percent against its leading counterparts – as a rallyacross Asian stock exchanges sapped safe-haven demand. The MSCIAsia Pacific regional benchmark equity index added 1.2 percentafter the IMF upgraded its outlook for world economic growth in 2012. The fund now believes global outputwill add 3.5 percent this year, up from a January estimate of 3.3percent. Importantly, this still marks a slowdown from the 3.9percent increase recorded in 2011. The key features of themacroeconomic landscape – a pickup in the US against abackdrop of recession in the Eurozone and a slowdown in China– likewise remained in place.

Asia Session : What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

0:30

AUD

Westpac Leading Index (MoM) (FEB)

0.2%

-

0.7% (R+)

1:00

NZD

ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (APR)

114.0

-

110.2

1:00

NZD

ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (APR)

3.4%

-

-2.7%

1:30

CNY

Property Prices (MAR)

-

-

-

E uro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

8:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Current Account n.s.a. (€) (FEB)

-

-12.3B

Low

8:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Current Account s.a. (€) (FEB)

-

4.5B

Low

8:30

GBP

Bank of England Minutes

-

-

High

8:30

GBP

Claimant Count Rate (MAR)

5.0%

5.0%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Jobless Claims Change (MAR)

6.0K

7.2K

High

8:30

GBP

Average Weekly Earnings (3M/YoY) (MAR)

1.2%

1.4%

Low

8:30

GBP

Weekly Earnings ex Bonus (3M/YoY) (MAR)

1.6%

1.7%

Low

8:30

GBP

ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (FEB)

8.4%

8.4%

Medium

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Construction Output s.a. (MoM) (FEB)

-

-0.8%

Low

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Construction Output w.d.a. (YoY) (FEB)

-

-1.4%

Low

9:00

CHF

Credit Suisse ZEW Survey (Expectations) (APR)

-

0.0

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.3000

1.3169

GBPUSD

1.5811

1.5976

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya , e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com . Follow me on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya 's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com
DailyFX is the forex news and research arm of FXCM, Inc (NYSE: FXCM), which provides currency trading and brokerage services and is an advertiser on TheStreet websites. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. Dailyfx will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. Currency trading involves significant risk of loss. Individual authors may hold positions in the currencies discussed in the article.

Original Article: http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/euro_open/2012/04/18/British_Pound_Unlikely_to_Find_Clear_Bearing_in_BOE_Minutes_Jobs_Data.html

DailyFX is the forex news and research arm of FXCM (NYSE: FXCM), which provides currency trading and brokerage services and is an advertiser on TheStreet websites. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. Dailyfx will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. Currency trading involves significant risk of loss. Individual authors may hold positions in the currencies discussed in the article.

More from Currencies

Markets Wobble as U.S. Readies More China Tariffs

Markets Wobble as U.S. Readies More China Tariffs

Watch These Two Crypto Experts Fiercely Debate the Future of Regulation

Watch These Two Crypto Experts Fiercely Debate the Future of Regulation

Bitcoin Today: Prices Attempt to Rally Following Early Weakness

Bitcoin Today: Prices Attempt to Rally Following Early Weakness

Ether Prices Rally After SEC Director Says He Doesn't Consider It a Security

Ether Prices Rally After SEC Director Says He Doesn't Consider It a Security

ECB's Mario Draghi Delivers a Masterclass in Monetary Policy

ECB's Mario Draghi Delivers a Masterclass in Monetary Policy