Bulls Have Great Expectations: Dave's Daily

NEW YORK (ETF Digest) -- There was little news to account for any rally on this Turnaround Tuesday given poor Industrial Production and lower than expected Housing Starts. But, bulls are looking ahead to earnings which have been much lowered and engineered to beat expectations. Goldman Sachs reported a beat ($3.92 vs $3.55 expected) and the stock rallied but now as much as the overall market. The market must smell great earnings news ahead seeing the current global economic softness as buying opportunities. There could also be some fresh money to funds as investors beat the tax deadline. That money gets invested quickly.

IBM just announced earnings that missed top line revenue estimates and stock falls. Intel (INTC) beats lowered estimates but stock is lower in after-hours trading. Yahoo (YHOO) earnings beat estimates and the stock is nearly 2% higher. Of many others, Cree Inc (CREE) shares were lower by almost 8% after its report.

There wasn't much news out of Europe today so stock bears there could take the day off while bulls could play. And, drum roll please... Apple (AAPL) shares rebounded nicely to close above $600 once again.

Bonds were only slightly weaker as stocks rose sharply. The dollar was slightly weaker with eurozone calm and commodity prices (GLD, DBC, USO and JJC) were more or less unchanged. This is a tip that investors are doing some last minute funding of their retirement accounts and commodities aren't front and center.

The Argentines know firsthand the rewards of defaulting and rationalizing doing so as the other guys fault. The country defaulted 10 years ago on $94 billion in debt after refusing to enact austerity measures dictated by the IMF. (Sound familiar?)

Fast forward 10 years and now with Moral Hazard issues shrugged-off and enabled the country has now seized YPF a subsidiary oil and gas production company of Spain's (as if they didn't have enough problems) Repsol.

" You can have my answer now Senator, if you like. My final offer is this: nothing. Not even the fee for the gambling license, which I would appreciate if you would put up personally."

Godfather Michael Corleone adapted especially for Argentina's Kirchner reply to Repsol.

 

I guess doing business south of the border particularly in Buenos Aires other than skipping out on your hotel bill, is out of the question now. But corporations have short memories as do other investors.

Volume Tuesday was about average, which is to say light, for recent periods. Breadth per the WSJ was quite positive.

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SPY - The SPDR® S&P 500® ETF is a fund that, before expenses, generally corresponds to the price and yield performance of the S&P 500 Index. Our approach is designed to provide portfolios with low portfolio turnover, accurate tracking, and lower costs.
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IWM - The iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the small capitalization sector of the U.S. equity market as represented by the Russell 2000 Index. The index represents the approximately 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index.
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QQQ - PowerShares Capital Management LLC is passionate about our goal of delivering the highest quality investment management available through one of the more benefit-rich investment vehicles ever created, the exchange-traded fund. PowerShares QQQ¿, formerly known as "QQQ" or the "NASDAQ- 100 Index Tracking Stock®", is an exchange-traded fund based on the Nasdaq-100 Index®. The Fund will, under most circumstances, consists of all of stocks in the Index. The Index includes 100 of the largest domestic and international nonfinancial companies listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market based on market capitalization. The portfolio is rebalanced quarterly and reconstituted annually.
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XLY - The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR® Fund, before expenses, seeks to closely match the returns and characteristics of the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector Index. Our approach is designed to provide portfolios with low portfolio turnover, accurate tracking, and lower costs.
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XLF - The Financial Select Sector SPDR® Fund, before expenses, seeks to closely match the returns and characteristics of the Financial Select Sector Index. Our approach is designed to provide portfolios with low portfolio turnover, accurate tracking, and lower costs.
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ITB - The iShares Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction Index Fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the Dow Jones U.S. Select Home Construction Index.
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IYR - The iShares Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index Fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, to the performance of the real estate sector of the U.S. equity market, as represented by the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index.
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IEF - The iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund seeks to approximate the total rate of return of the intermediate-term sector of the United States Treasury market as defined by the Barclays Capital U.S. 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Index.
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TLT - The iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund seeks to approximate the total rate of return of the long-term sector of the United States Treasury market as defined by the Barclays Capital U.S. 20+ Year Treasury Bond Index.
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UUP - The PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish Fund (Symbol: UUP) is based on the Deutsche Bank Long US Dollar Index (USDX®) Futures Index¿ (DB Long USD Futures Index). The Index, which is managed by DB Commodity Services LLC, is a rules-based index composed solely of long USDX® futures contracts. See more details

FXE - CurrencyShares Euro Trust is designed to track the price of the euro net of Trust expenses, which are expected to be paid from interest earned on the deposited euros.
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SLV - The objective of the iShares Silver Trust is for the value of the shares of the iShares Silver Trust to reflect, at any given time, the price of silver owned by the iShares Silver Trust at that time, less the iShares Silver Trust's expenses and liabilities.
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JJC - The Dow Jones-UBS Copper Subindex Total ReturnService Mark is a sub-index of the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total ReturnService Mark and reflects the returns that are potentially available through an unleveraged investment in the futures contracts on physical commodities comprising the index plus the rate of interest that could be earned on cash collateral invested in specified Treasury Bills.
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DBC - The PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (Fund) is based on the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index -- Optimum Yield Diversified Excess Return¿ (Index) and managed by DB Commodity Services LLC. The Index is a rules-based index composed of futures contracts on 14 of the most heavily-traded and important physical commodities in the world. You cannot invest directly in an index. Ordinary brokerage commissions apply.
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USO - The United States Oil Fund, LP ("USO") is a domestic exchange traded security designed to track the movements of light, sweet crude oil ("West Texas Intermediate").
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UGA - The United States Gasoline Fund LP (UGA) is an exchange traded security that is designed to track in percentage terms the movements of gasoline prices.
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XLE - The Energy Select Sector SPDR® Fund, before expenses, seeks to closely match the returns and characteristics of the Energy Select Sector Index. Our approach is designed to provide portfolios with low portfolio turnover, accurate tracking, and lower costs.
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DBA - The PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund is based on the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index Diversified Agriculture Excess Return¿ and managed by DB Commodity Services LLC. The Index is a rules-based index composed of futures contracts on some of the most liquid and widely traded agricultural commodities. The Index is intended to reflect the performance of the agricultural sector. You cannot invest directly in the Index. Ordinary brokerage commissions apply.
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EFA - The iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of publicly traded securities in the European, Australasian and Far Eastern markets, as measured by the MSCI EAFE Index.
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EWZ - The iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of publicly traded securities in the Brazilian market, as measured by the MSCI Brazil Index.
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RSX - The Russia ETF seeks to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the DAXglobal® Russia+ Index. The Index provides exposure to publicly traded companies that are domiciled in Russia, and traded in Russia and/or on leading global exchanges. As such, the Fund is subject to the risks of investing in this country.
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EPI - WisdomTree India Earnings Fund seeks investment results that correspond to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the WisdomTree India Earnings Index.
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The NYMO is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60 markets are extended short-term.

The McClellan Summation Index is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended.

The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". Our own interpretation is highlighted in the chart above. The VIX measures the level of put option activity over a 30-day period. Greater buying of put options (protection) causes the index to rise.

Continue to Concluding Remarks

A quiet day in the eurozone, uninspiring data in the U.S. and bang-zoom up we go. Much of the rally may just be due to late funding of retirement accounts. If so, we'll know this soon enough. Nevertheless, earnings news is coming and most has been beating much lowered expectations. It's been a game that's been played for a long time--guide lower than beat forecasts. This then pushes stocks higher.

Wednesday offers little data away from energy inventories. Earnings news will continue apace with American Express (AXP), Blackrock (BLK), EBay (EBAY), Qualcomm (QCOM) and Yum Brands (YUM).

Let's see what happens.

 

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