Stock Market Remains Fragile, Charts Show

NEW YORK ( Chart Lab) -- The S&P 500 closed Friday at 1,370.42, down 17.15 points on the day, or 1.24%. As of the low (1,355) posted during Tuesday's trading range, the index found support directly on our proprietary uptrend line dating back to September 2011. (See chart below.) This may be an area where continued support holds, and buyers re-enter the market.

However, in a broader sense, I do not believe this market is out of the woods, near term, until a daily settlement above 1,402 is posted. Until such time, risk of a further downside correction remains in play.

Our previous assessment to our readers was stated three weeks ago: "For the week ahead, if the market approaches the 1,410 region, I would expect that area to be the upper limit of this move, and a retrace toward 1,360 to follow." Thus far, we have been pretty much spot on. If you recall, I stated I would short the index on a daily close below 1,388. Traders look for a congestion zone between 1,355 and 1,410 to develop over several months as a trading range.

Greg Troccoli has been providing institutional-quality technical analysis for over 25 years. A majority of Greg�s career was spent working with Prudential Securities, where he held the position of chief technical analyst, covering all global markets. In addition, Greg was employed by Bear Sterns and most recently Deutsche Bank-Americas. His research has been used by over 3,500 institutions worldwide, including eight central banks, proprietary trading desks and a large contingent of retail investors and financial advisors. Greg has an extensive media presence and has been a weekly contributor on CNBC�s 'Fast Money' and 'Closing Bell,' in addition to Bloomberg TV and Yahoo Finance.

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