This column originally appeared on Real Money Pro at 7:41 a.m. EDT on April 10.NEW YORK ( Real Money) -- I am fine-tuning my S&P 500 fair market value calculation. As a reminder, my starting point in determining exposure is valuation: My fair market value calculation is based on four different economic scenarios and assigning probabilities to each result. In looking at these four outcomes, I am making the following changes this morning:
- I am lowering the probability of an above-consensus reacceleration in domestic economic activity to zero (defined as +3% for 2012 real GDP growth);
- I am modestly increasing the chance of sub-1.5% 2012 real GDP growth; and
- I am slightly raising the likelihood of my baseline, muddle-through scenario (defined as 2012 real GDP growth of between +1.5% and +2.0%).