Or much of that $30 premium is composed of investment and fund speculation, driven by commodity indices, exchange-traded funds and hedge funds. This speculation is hiking prices and punishing consumers at the gas pumps.

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Or December 2015 Brent crude oil futures are the most undervalued investment ever seen and will make you a virtual fortune in less than three years, the kind you can retire on without worrying about your grandkids' grandkids' futures.

I have a lot of respect for oil analysts and their research, and I also don't think you should bet the farm on December 2015 futures.

That leaves only one possibility.

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