Global Equity Monitor: Techno-Fundamental Research & Analysis

By Joel Kruger, Technical StrategistDavid Schutz,
  • US equities look to have found interim 2012 high; looking for reversal
  • UK equities rolling over after stalling by critical psychological barrier
  • German equities seen lower after stalling above 7,000
  • Japanese equities at risk for major corrective declines
  • Australian equities remain well offered on rallies

US30 (Dow)

Technical : We could finally beseeing the formation of some form of a top in 2012, with dailystudies looking stretched and the market breaking lower on Tuesdayto end a sequence of consecutive daily higher lows. Look forconfirmation Wednesday on a break back below Tuesday’s lows.This could then open an accelerated decline back towards the 12,750area at a minimum.

Fundamental: US equity futures werewell bid today as market participants look for a hike in home salesdata set for release today. The data’s market impact remainsto be seen, but recent economic data out of the US housing markethas shown improvement in the housing sector. Moreover, crude oilreserves data set for release today could take on addedsignificance given recent tensions out of the Persian Gulf.Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs today advised in a report that stocks willlikely experience a “steady upward trajectory” over thecoming years because any declines in economic growth have alreadybeen factored into markets.

UK100 (FTSE)

Technical : Although the market hasmanaged to mount an impressive rebound since breaking down from2012 highs at 5,964, we see any additional rallies as limited, withthe greater risk for the formation of an interim top aroundpsychological barriers at 6,000. Look for the latest break backbelow 5,900 to help confirm outlook and accelerate towards 5,750further down.

Fundamental: The Bank of EnglandMinutes released today revealed that central bank members see theeconomy slowly turning around. The BOE unanimously favored itsrecent rate decision, while two members desired more easing. A majority of Bank ofEngland board members saw “no reason” to change thecentral bank’s benchmark interest rate and currentquantitative easing program. Meanwhile, Britain’s budgetdeficit almost doubled in February as taxes fell and spendingsurged.

GER30 (DAX)

Technical : While the market hasmanaged to post a significant recovery rally and extend gains tofresh 2012 highs, we still see the prospects for recent ralliesbeyond 7,000 as limited with the greater risk for the formation ofa medium-term top in favor of a deeper decline over the comingweeks. Look for a break back below 7,000 on Wednesday to confirmnegative outlook and open an acceleration towards next key supportin the 6,750 area.

Fundamental: European marketsremained fairly unmoved today as the Greek parliament approved a130 billion-euro ($173 billion) bailout. The bailout approvaldampened demand for safe assets, and German government bunds fellas yields widened to a 3-month high.

JPN225 (Nikkei)

Technical : Daily studies arefinally starting to correct from violently overbought levels and wewould recommend that bulls proceed with caution over the comingdays. From here, short-term risks are tilted to the downside sothat technical studies can unwind from these overextended readings.Look for a pullback towards the 9,500 area before consideringpossibility of a bullish resumption.

Fundamental: Japanese marketsdeclined today, sending the Nikkei into the red zone for the firsttime in six days. Concern s that China’seconomy is slowing were thought to be turning traders off to risk,and signals that the stock market may have risen too far, too fastslowed down buying.

AUS 200 (ASX)

Technical : Rallies have been wellcapped by 4,300 and we look for the market to roll over yet againin favor of a bearish decline towards 4,100. A break below 4,100will then accelerate setbacks and expose 4,000 further down.Ultimately, only a daily close back above 4,315 gives reason forpause.

Fundamental: The Australiandollar saw a brief rallyovernight after the bureau of resources and energy said it seeshigher energy earnings in the future. Gains were not seen in equitymarkets, though, Chinese concernscontinued to throw a damper on trade. New Zealand’s FinMin said overnight that he expects hiscountry’s deficit to increase, a development that did not help risksentiment.

--- Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist

Tocontact Joel Kruger, email jskruger@dailyfx.com .Follow me on Twitter @JoelKruger

To beadded to Joel Kruger’s distribution list, send an email withsubject line “Distribution List” to jskruger@dailyfx.com
DailyFX is the forex news and research arm of FXCM, Inc (NYSE: FXCM), which provides currency trading and brokerage services and is an advertiser on TheStreet websites. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. Dailyfx will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. Currency trading involves significant risk of loss. Individual authors may hold positions in the currencies discussed in the article.

Original Article: http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2012/03/21/Global_Equity_Monitor_Techno-Fundamental_Research.html

DailyFX is the forex news and research arm of FXCM (NYSE: FXCM), which provides currency trading and brokerage services and is an advertiser on TheStreet websites. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. Dailyfx will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. Currency trading involves significant risk of loss. Individual authors may hold positions in the currencies discussed in the article.

More from Currencies

Bitcoin Today: Prices Sink to One-Month Low as Bid to $10,000 Falters

Bitcoin Today: Prices Sink to One-Month Low as Bid to $10,000 Falters

Watch These Two Crypto Experts Fiercely Debate the Future of Regulation

Watch These Two Crypto Experts Fiercely Debate the Future of Regulation

These Small Cap Experts Explain Why Crypto Isn't Going Anywhere

These Small Cap Experts Explain Why Crypto Isn't Going Anywhere

Bitcoin Today: Prices Stick Close to Flat in Low-Volume Day

Bitcoin Today: Prices Stick Close to Flat in Low-Volume Day

The World Is Ready for Blockchain but Is Blockchain Ready for the World?

The World Is Ready for Blockchain but Is Blockchain Ready for the World?