The following commentary comes from an independent investor or market observer as part of TheStreet's guest contributor program, which is separate from the company's news coverage.By Marc Chandler NEW YORK ( BBH FX Strategy) -- The Spanish news stream is poor as the media focus on local bank reliance, central bank funding and the 2012 budget that will be unveiled next week. Just as roughly one in three people who are unemployed in the eurozone are in Spain, Spanish banks account for almost half of the borrowing from the European Central Bank in February.
Spain's 10-year bond yield has risen steadily this month. On March 1, it retested the low yield point since November 2010 near 4.85%, encouraged by the two long-term refinancing operations. The yield Monday hit the high for the month near 5.25%. This seems to be the middle of a 5.0%-5.25% range that will likely prevail ahead of the unveiling of the 2012 budget details. The price of the five-year credit default swap has risen from about 356 basis points on March 1 to 415 basis points in the middle of last week. It is currently near the 100-day moving average of about 400 basis points. It is essentially unchanged year to date, suggesting that the LTROs may have helped ease this year's rollover risk (Spain has met almost 50% of this year's refinancing needs), it has not substantially altered the market's views of the risks of an eventual restructuring.