The following commentary comes from an independent investor or market observer as part of TheStreet's guest contributor program, which is separate from the company's news coverage.NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- We're all feeling pretty good, and why not? There's plenty to be happy about. The markets are up more than 10%. Economic data in the U.S. is improving almost as rapidly as the European debt crisis is fading. The turmoil in the Middle East, though roiling, never seems to attain the status of an actual crisis. Unfortunately, markets are largely inert: They don't look backward. They barely react to what is happening in the present. Any semblance of actualization they have is reserved for the future, for trying to interpret what is going to happen. And the future right now holds a hint of trouble that could deliver a repeat of 2011's summer sell-off and market volatility.