Investors Wait for the Fed: Dave's Daily

There's little to comment regarding Monday's market action. Investors have absorbed the Greek default (by any other name, it's still a default) for now anyway. And, not that you care, but new Greek bonds issued to those lucky private holders are already being heavily discounted. In fact, as issued the yields were already steep at 18% but they've already dropped to yield roughly 25%.

What bulls have mixed feelings about are the ongoing reductions in GDP estimates from many economists with most cutting forward view to 1.5% to 1.8%. On the other hand lower GDP growth can be bullish if more QE is the result. Eventually even the latter will be seen as negative if doing this fails to produce better results. Remember, the Fed's balance sheet is now in the trillions and the government has provided additional stimulus in the trillions as well. So far the results of all this is meager economic growth, still high unemployment, a weaker dollar and enormous fiscal deficits. 

Volume will dry-up in advance of tomorrow afternoon's Fed announcement. But the media will assemble the usual suspects (talking heads) to entertain us with what to expect and "pre-parsing" (is that a word?) what it all might mean.

Nevertheless, this posting features what ETFs and associated stocks were most active on this quiet Monday. Let's begin with Oracle (ORCL) and linked directly to (IGV), as Jefferies & Co analyst Ross MacMillan downgraded the stock. Apple (AAPL) linked to both (XLK and QQQ) continued to climb after the company reported delays in new orders because current inventory was sold-out. So, I'd say the new device is a success initially. It just may be consumers in this sector are just programmed to buy the latest thing period. Elsewhere in tech, the semiconductor sector (SOXX, INTC) was weaker.

Gold (GLD) and crude oil (USO) were weaker while the dollar and bonds were relatively unchanged.

Volume was once again "holiday light" and breadth per the WSJ was negative overall.

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SPY - The SPDR® S&P 500® ETF is a fund that, before expenses, generally corresponds to the price and yield performance of the S&P 500 Index. Our approach is designed to provide portfolios with low portfolio turnover, accurate tracking, and lower costs.
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IWM - The iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the small capitalization sector of the U.S. equity market as represented by the Russell 2000 Index. The index represents the approximately 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index.
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QQQ - PowerShares Capital Management LLC is passionate about our goal of delivering the highest quality investment management available through one of the more benefit-rich investment vehicles ever created, the exchange-traded fund.PowerShares QQQ¿, formerly known as "QQQ" or the "NASDAQ- 100 Index Tracking Stock®", is an exchange-traded fund based on the Nasdaq-100 Index®. The Fund will, under most circumstances, consists of all of stocks in the Index.
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Continue to U.S. Sector, Stocks & Bond ETFs


XLK - The Technology Select Sector SPDR® Fund, before expenses, seeks to closely match the returns and characteristics of the Technology Select Sector Index (ticker: IXT). Our approach is designed to provide portfolios with low portfolio turnover, accurate tracking, and lower costs.
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IGV - The iShares S&P North American Technology-Software Index Fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of U.S.-traded software-related stocks as represented by the S&P North American Technology-Software Index¿.
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SOXX - The iShares PHLX SOX Semiconductor Sector Index Fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of U.S.-listed semiconductor stocks as represented by the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index ("the Index").
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XHB - The SPDR® S&P® Homebuilders ETF, before expenses, seeks to closely match the returns and characteristics of the S&P Homebuilders Select IndustryTM Index. Our approach is designed to provide portfolios with low portfolio turnover, accurate tracking, and lower costs.
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XLF - The Financial Select Sector SPDR® Fund, before expenses, seeks to closely match the returns and characteristics of the Financial Select Sector Index. Our approach is designed to provide portfolios with low portfolio turnover, accurate tracking, and lower costs.
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IEF - The iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund seeks to approximate the total rate of return of the intermediate-term sector of the United States Treasury market as defined by the Barclays Capital U.S. 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Index.
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Continue to Currency & Commodity Market ETFs

UUP - The PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish Fund (Symbol: UUP) is based on the Deutsche Bank Long US Dollar Index (USDX®) Futures Index¿ (DB Long USD Futures Index). The Index, which is managed by DB Commodity Services LLC, is a rules-based index composed solely of long USDX® futures contracts. The USDX® futures contract is designed to replicate the performance of being long the US Dollar against the following currencies: Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona and Swiss Franc.
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GLD - The objective of the SPDR® Gold Trust¿ is for the Shares to reflect the performance of the price of gold bullion, less the Trust's expenses.
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DJP - The iPath® Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total ReturnService Mark ETN is linked to the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total ReturnService Mark and reflects the returns that are potentially available through an unleveraged investment in the futures contracts on physical commodities comprising the index plus the rate of interest that could be earned on cash collateral invested in specified Treasury Bills. The commodities represented in the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total ReturnService Mark are rebalanced annually; however, the weightings fluctuate between rebalancings due to changes in market prices.
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JJC - The Dow Jones-UBS Copper Subindex Total ReturnService Mark is a sub-index of the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total ReturnService Mark and reflects the returns that are potentially available through an unleveraged investment in the futures contracts on physical commodities comprising the index plus the rate of interest that could be earned on cash collateral invested in specified Treasury Bills.
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Continue to Overseas Sectors & ETFs

EFA - The iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of publicly traded securities in the European, Australasian and Far Eastern markets, as measured by the MSCI EAFE Index.
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GREK - The Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the FTSE/ATHEX 20 Capped Index.
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EEM - The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of publicly traded securities in emerging markets, as represented by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.
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EEM - The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of publicly traded securities in emerging markets, as represented by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.
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The NYMO is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60 markets are extended short-term.

The McClellan Summation Index is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended.

The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". Our own interpretation is highlighted in the chart above. The VIX measures the level of put option activity over a 30-day period. Greater buying of put options (protection) causes the index to rise.

Continue to Concluding Remarks

The Fed's on deck.

Let's see what happens.

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The charts and comments are only the author's view of market activity and aren't recommendations to buy or sell any security.  Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period.  Chart annotations aren't predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author's opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com .